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Hanbury Trophy Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 14–1
2 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 12–3
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 10–5
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 5–10
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4–11
6 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 45 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.517 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.37 ± 0.34: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Virginia
Wahoos		27.00
school −0.10		Alexander Singh / Dorothy Stump 1.99
Colin Suvak / Colleen Roney 2.18
Victor Layne / Katarina Catallo		65%14–1 (93%)+4.3
2Christopher Newport University
Captains		36.64
school −0.24, home +0.24		Austin Powers / Anna Patterson 2.37
Vir Menon / Mackenzie Conner
Spencer Charney / Kaitlyn Reilly		55%12–3 (80%)+3.8
3U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		17.54
school +0.05		James Morgan / Jessica Mcjones
Tyler Fleig / Karma Richards 2.09
Nicholas Gartner / Brittney Slook		78%10–5 (67%)−1.6
4Old Dominion University
Monarchs		55.78
school −0.30		Brendon Wilkins / Abigail Lockler
Olivia Windemuller / Gavin Burkhart
Alec Chicoine / Victoria Ewing 2.49		33%5–10 (33%)+0.1
5Georgetown University
Hoyas		65.52Curtis Crooke / Virginia Valenti
Clay Broussard / Isabelle Trimble 2.04
Tuckerman Jones / Grace Hanrahan		26%4–11 (27%)+0.0
6Washington College
Shoremen		46.19Alexander Smith / Allison Cochran 1.90
Hannah Schmidt / Andrew Vernon 1.84
Matthew Mcdermaid / Lindsey Arnstein 2.34		44%0–15 (0%)−6.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Virginia7.009.2114–19.7+2.215.51%
2Christopher Newport University6.647.9812–38.2+1.343.43%
4Old Dominion University5.785.815–104.9+0.020.059%
5Georgetown University5.525.534–114.0+0.010.060%
3U. S. Naval Academy7.546.9610–511.6−0.580.791%
6Washington College6.193.190–156.5≤−3.0012.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Alexander SinghUniversity of Virginia1.994.1914–19.7+2.215.51%
Colin SuvakUniversity of Virginia2.184.3914–19.7+2.215.51%
Austin PowersChristopher Newport University2.373.7112–38.2+1.343.43%
Vir MenonChristopher Newport University1.843.1812–38.2+1.343.43%
Brendon WilkinsOld Dominion University1.621.655–104.9+0.020.059%
Alec ChicoineOld Dominion University2.492.525–104.9+0.020.059%
Curtis CrookeGeorgetown University1.211.224–114.0+0.010.060%
Clay BroussardGeorgetown University2.042.054–114.0+0.010.060%
Tuckerman JonesGeorgetown University1.681.694–114.0+0.010.060%
James MorganU. S. Naval Academy2.441.8510–511.6−0.580.791%
Alexander SmithWashington College1.90-1.100–156.5≤−3.0012.5>99%
Hannah SchmidtWashington College1.84-1.160–156.5≤−3.0012.5>99%
Matthew McdermaidWashington College2.34-0.660–156.5≤−3.0012.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University86%
12University of VirginiaGeorgetown University84%
13Christopher Newport UniversityWashington College46%upset
14U. S. Naval AcademyGeorgetown University90%
15Old Dominion UniversityWashington College34%upset
16University of VirginiaChristopher Newport University63%
17Georgetown UniversityWashington College29%upset
18U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Virginia63%
19Christopher Newport UniversityOld Dominion University68%
110University of VirginiaWashington College67%
111Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University43%upset
112Christopher Newport UniversityU. S. Naval Academy28%upset
113University of VirginiaOld Dominion University77%
114U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College79%
115Christopher Newport UniversityGeorgetown University75%
216U. S. Naval AcademyGeorgetown University88%
217Christopher Newport UniversityOld Dominion University70%
218University of VirginiaWashington College69%
219Old Dominion UniversityGeorgetown University56%
220University of VirginiaU. S. Naval Academy37%upset
221Christopher Newport UniversityWashington College62%
222University of VirginiaOld Dominion University77%
223Christopher Newport UniversityGeorgetown University76%
224U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College80%
225University of VirginiaChristopher Newport University58%
226U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University85%
227Georgetown UniversityWashington College36%upset
228Christopher Newport UniversityU. S. Naval Academy30%upset
229University of VirginiaGeorgetown University81%
230Old Dominion UniversityWashington College42%upset
331U. S. Naval AcademyGeorgetown University88%
332University of VirginiaWashington College71%
333Christopher Newport UniversityOld Dominion University71%
334U. S. Naval AcademyWashington College81%
335Christopher Newport UniversityGeorgetown University76%
336University of VirginiaOld Dominion University77%
337Christopher Newport UniversityWashington College66%
338University of VirginiaU. S. Naval Academy36%upset
339Old Dominion UniversityGeorgetown University55%
340University of VirginiaChristopher Newport University56%
341Georgetown UniversityWashington College39%upset
342U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University85%
343University of VirginiaGeorgetown University80%
344Christopher Newport UniversityU. S. Naval Academy31%upset
345Old Dominion UniversityWashington College44%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.WahoosCaptainsMidshipmenMonarchsHoyasShoremen
University of Virginia Wahoos4–1✕WLWWW
Christopher Newport University Captains4–1L✕WWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–1WL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs1–4LLL✕LW
Georgetown University Hoyas2–3LLLW✕W
Washington College Shoremen0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WahoosCaptainsMidshipmenMonarchsHoyasShoremen
University of Virginia Wahoos5–0✕WWWWW
Christopher Newport University Captains4–1L✕WWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–3LLL✕WW
Georgetown University Hoyas1–4LLLL✕W
Washington College Shoremen0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WahoosCaptainsMidshipmenMonarchsHoyasShoremen
University of Virginia Wahoos5–0✕WWWWW
Christopher Newport University Captains4–1L✕WWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–3LLL✕WW
Georgetown University Hoyas1–4LLLL✕W
Washington College Shoremen0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
2 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-3 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 4-5-6
3 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
4 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-5-6
5 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
6 University of Virginia Wahoos 2-3-4 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 1-5-6
7 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5
8 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. University of Virginia Wahoos 2-4-5
9 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
10 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
11 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
12 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-3 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4-5-6
13 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
14 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
15 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-6 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-5
16 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-5-6
17 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-3-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-6
18 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
19 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-4-6
20 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-3-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-4-5
21 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5
22 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
23 Christopher Newport University Captains 2-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-4-6
24 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
25 University of Virginia Wahoos 2-3-4 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 1-5-6
26 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
27 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5
28 Christopher Newport University Captains 2-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-5-6
29 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 2-4-6
30 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
31 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-6
32 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-3-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 2-5-6
33 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
34 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
35 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-5-6
36 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
37 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
38 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
39 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-4-6
40 University of Virginia Wahoos 1-2-4 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 3-5-6
41 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 DSQ def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6 DSQ
42 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
43 University of Virginia Wahoos 2-3-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-5-6
44 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-2-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-5
45 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1023.9 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.8 kn
avg  ·  max 13.6 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From SW (229°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1023.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Christopher Newport — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Christopher Newport in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →