South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta

HostGeorgetown
Date09/24/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ/Z420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	George Washington University	Colonials	27	40	67
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	51	44	95
3	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	42	56	98
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	56	45	101
5	Hampton University	Pirates	58	49	107
6	University of Virginia	Wahoos	104	47	151
7	Christopher Newport University	Captains	79	74	153
8	Virginia Tech	Hokies	73	91	164
9	University of Maryland	Terps	87	110	197
10	Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	125	140	265
11	University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	143	139	282
12	William and Mary	Tribe	113	175	288
13	American University	Eagles	161	136	297
14	St. John's College	Johnnies	170	139	309
15	Catholic University of America	Cardinals	173 LOP	181 LOP	354 LOP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
George Washington University	Colonials	7	2	1	5	1	1	2	1	1	4	1	1	27	Brendan Shanahan '17 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6	1	5	2	8	2	3	2	4	1	5	3	42	Jeremy Herrin '18 Carter Little '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	1	4	4	3	5	DSQ	4	4	2	2	4	2	51	Campbell D'Eliscu '19 [1-6] Roger Dorr '18 [7-12] Emily Fung '17 [1-6]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	2	7	2	1	2	8	5	6	5	5	3	10	56	Bradley Adam '17 [1-10] Patrick Tara '17 [11-12] Julia Monro '17 [1-10] Kaisey Mccallion '19 [11-12]
Hampton University	Pirates	4	3	3	7	6	3	8	11	3	3	2	5	58	Maximilian Kuester '18 [1-4, 9-12] Filip Stevanovic '20 [5-8] Dario Abou Rjeili '20 [1-4, 9-12]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	8	8	8	6	3	4	1	5	8	6	8	8	73	Bryan Bay '21 Erica Vandeveer '17
Christopher Newport University	Captains	5	6	6	9	4	7	7	8	6	10	7	4	79	Anders Hudson '17 Kaitlyn Reilly '18
University of Maryland	Terps	9	5	7	4	10	5	9	3	7	9	10	9	87	Andrew Bobbitt '18 [1-12] Zachary Thomas '18 [1-10] Madeline Hope '18 [11-12]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	10	12	12	8	7	10	6	9	10	7	6	7	104	Alexander Singh '19 Katarina Catallo '20
William and Mary	Tribe	3	9	13	10	9	9	10	7	9	12	11	11	113	Patrick Mazzeo '18 Juliana Rustum '20
Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	12	14	11	14	11	6	11	12	11	8	9	6	125	Theodore Fortier '17 Ann Bell '20
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	11	10	10	11	13	12	14	10	12	13	14	13	143	Nathan Thompson '17 [1-12] Jeffery Mayher '20 [1-2] Madeline Orr '19 [3-9] Lars Sobieski '19 [10-12]
American University	Eagles	13	13	14	15	15	11	13	14	15	14	12	12	161	Alexina Beckley '17 [1-9, 11-12] Dylan Brady '19 [10] Dylan Brady '19 [1-9, 11-12] Alexina Beckley '17 [10]
St. John's College	Johnnies	15	15	15	12	14	14	15	15	14	BKD	13	14	170	Charles Carpenter '20 Madeline Edwards '19
Catholic University of America	Cardinals	14	11	9	13	12	13	12	13	13	11	DNS	DNS	173 LOP	Grace Wagner '19 Evan Smithers '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
George Washington University	Colonials	5	3	6	3	6	1	2	2	3	2	4	3	40	Andrew Sheerin '19 Edward D'Eliscu '20
Georgetown University	Hoyas	2	4	3	2	4	5	1	1	7	8	5	2	44	Aj Reiter '17 [1-5, 7-12] William Logue '20 [6] Meaghan Macrae '18 [1-5, 7-12]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	1	1	2	1	3	2	6	5	5	4	6	9	45	Dane Byerly '20 Dyson Lord '19
University of Virginia	Wahoos	9	2	5	5	2	3	3	7	1	5	1	4	47	Victor Layne '20 Colleen Roney '18
Hampton University	Pirates	4	5	1	4	1	8	5	3	6	3	3	6	49	Luca Taglialegne '20 Elisabeth Kuester '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7	6	4	6	7	7	4	4	2	6	2	1	56	Jack Elkin '19 [1-12] Abigail Lockler '18 [1-6] Stephen Guglielmo '19 [7-12]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	8	7	7	7	5	4	7	6	4	7	7	5	74	Samara Leith '19 [1-4] Spencer Charney '20 [5-10, 12] Anna Patterson '20 [11] Mackenzie Conner '20 [1-4]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	6	8	13	9	8	6	8	8	8	1	8	8	91	Nicholas Brady '19 [1-4, 11-12] Preston Senior '19 [5-10] Ashley Black '17 [1-4, 11-12]
University of Maryland	Terps	3	9	8	15	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	110	Alexander Johnston '18 [1-10] Natalie Jones '20 [11-12] Kayla Mckenna '20 [1-10]
American University	Eagles	13	10	11	13	12	11	10	10	11	11	12	12	136	Emily Seeley '19 Audrey Milite '18
St. John's College	Johnnies	12	12	9	11	9	10	14	14	12	10	13	13	139	John Monday '19 [1-12] Seth Kates '19 [1-2, 7-12] Elizabeth Skelton '18 [3-6]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Retrievers	14	DNS	10	10	11	14	11	11	10	12	10	10	139	Danyte Reisinger '19 [1-2] Jeffery Mayher '20 [3-12] Madeline Orr '19 [1-2] Danyte Reisinger '19 [3-6, 10-12] Lars Sobieski '19 [7-9]
Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	10	13	12	8	13	12	13	15	13	13	11	7	140	Conor Macneill '19 Genevieve Lee '20
William and Mary	Tribe	DNS	DNF	15	14	15	15	15	13	14	14	14	14	175	August Williams '18 Carol Peng '17
Catholic University of America	Cardinals	11	11	14	12	14	13	12	12	15	15	DNS	DNS	181 LOP	Meghan Crawford '20 Nicole Federici '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.200+0.20

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
American University Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Catholic University of America Cardinals	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
Christopher Newport University Captains	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
George Washington University Colonials	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15
Georgetown University Hoyas	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Hampton University Pirates	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
University of Maryland Terps	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
St. John's College Johnnies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
University of Virginia Wahoos	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Virginia Tech Hokies	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
William and Mary Tribe	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
American University Eagles	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
Catholic University of America Cardinals	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	3	3	6	6
Christopher Newport University Captains	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	16	16	15	15
George Washington University Colonials	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Georgetown University Hoyas	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Hampton University Pirates	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
University of Maryland Terps	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
St. John's College Johnnies	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
University of Virginia Wahoos	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
Virginia Tech Hokies	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
William and Mary Tribe	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
American University	Alexina Beckley '17 [1-9, 11-12] Dylan Brady '19 [10]	Dylan Brady '19 [1-9, 11-12] Alexina Beckley '17 [10]
Eagles	Emily Seeley '19	Audrey Milite '18
Catholic University of America	Grace Wagner '19	Evan Smithers '19
Cardinals	Meghan Crawford '20	Nicole Federici '19
Christopher Newport University	Anders Hudson '17	Kaitlyn Reilly '18
Captains	Samara Leith '19 [1-4] Spencer Charney '20 [5-10, 12] Anna Patterson '20 [11]	Mackenzie Conner '20 [1-4]
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19	Edward D'Eliscu '20
Georgetown University	Campbell D'Eliscu '19 [1-6] Roger Dorr '18 [7-12]	Emily Fung '17 [1-6]
Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 [1-5, 7-12] William Logue '20 [6]	Meaghan Macrae '18 [1-5, 7-12]
Hampton University	Maximilian Kuester '18 [1-4, 9-12] Filip Stevanovic '20 [5-8]	Dario Abou Rjeili '20 [1-4, 9-12]
Pirates	Luca Taglialegne '20	Elisabeth Kuester '19
Loyola University Maryland	Theodore Fortier '17	Ann Bell '20
Greyhounds	Conor Macneill '19	Genevieve Lee '20
Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	Carter Little '18
Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 [1-12]	Abigail Lockler '18 [1-6] Stephen Guglielmo '19 [7-12]
St. John's College	Charles Carpenter '20	Madeline Edwards '19
Johnnies	John Monday '19 [1-12]	Seth Kates '19 [1-2, 7-12] Elizabeth Skelton '18 [3-6]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Bradley Adam '17 [1-10] Patrick Tara '17 [11-12]	Julia Monro '17 [1-10] Kaisey Mccallion '19 [11-12]
Seahawks	Dane Byerly '20	Dyson Lord '19
University of Maryland	Andrew Bobbitt '18 [1-12]	Zachary Thomas '18 [1-10] Madeline Hope '18 [11-12]
Terps	Alexander Johnston '18 [1-10] Natalie Jones '20 [11-12]	Kayla Mckenna '20 [1-10]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Nathan Thompson '17 [1-12]	Jeffery Mayher '20 [1-2] Madeline Orr '19 [3-9] Lars Sobieski '19 [10-12]
Retrievers	Danyte Reisinger '19 [1-2] Jeffery Mayher '20 [3-12]	Madeline Orr '19 [1-2] Danyte Reisinger '19 [3-6, 10-12] Lars Sobieski '19 [7-9]
University of Virginia	Alexander Singh '19	Katarina Catallo '20
Wahoos	Victor Layne '20	Colleen Roney '18
Virginia Tech	Bryan Bay '21	Erica Vandeveer '17
Hokies	Nicholas Brady '19 [1-4, 11-12] Preston Senior '19 [5-10]	Ashley Black '17 [1-4, 11-12]
William and Mary	Patrick Mazzeo '18	Juliana Rustum '20
Tribe	August Williams '18	Carol Peng '17

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From NE (35°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn · NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.00

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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