Virginia Tech '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.09 (fleet 2.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–7 (0%) as crew 9–12 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 0–1 | 9–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 9–18 against 11.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.38 | -0.62 | 0–6 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.01 | 2.30 | 4–9 | 5.1 | −0.71 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2018-04-07 | SAISA Team Race Championships | crew | 2.97 | 3.42 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 9 | 16.6 | 0.85 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.5 | 2.34 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.0 | -1.32 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Buckeye Intersectional | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 2.84 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Preston Senior |  University of South Florida |
'19 |
| ISSA | Preston Senior |  H. B. Plant High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
