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Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 122
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 149
3 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 164
4 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 223
5 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 247
6 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 285
7 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 351
8 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 383
9 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 471
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats A 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 2 13 2 37 Max Gillette '20
Brooklyn Curtin '20
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons B 3 3 5 1 7 8 7 1 9 2 1 5 4 4 60 John Ellis '19
Barrett Adams '17
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks A 4 4 8 9 8 4 3 10 2 3 3 1 1 1 61 Sydney Seitz '17
Katherine Foley '19
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 5 6 1 13 6 3 1 6 3 5 2 7 2 3 63 Ava Esquier '20 [1-14]
Max Slosburg '19 [1-3]
Daniel Pfeffer '19 [4-9]
Alison Gern '20 [10-14]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats B 1 2 2 18 2 5 11 8 6 4 5 3 10 8 85 Bailey Cornog '19 [1-6]
John Dyment '18 [7-14]
Kathleen Anderson '20 [1-6]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 8 9 4 12 5 2 6 5 4 7 6 8 3 7 86 Lenox Butcher '20 [1-6, 10-14]
Keen Butcher '18 [7-9]
Katie Bontje '20 [1-3, 10-14]
Alison Gern '20 [4-6]
Sarah Punzel '19 [7-9]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons A 7 7 9 5 9 6 5 9 10 8 9 9 6 5 104 Haley Clemson '20
Molly Jean Henebury '19
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings A 9 8 12 8 4 11 8 7 8 6 7 6 11 6 111 Nina Van De Vaarst '19
Megan Parker '19
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies B 11 5 6 3 11 15 4 3 7 14 12 13 8 9 121 Nathan Gibson '19
Michael Van Meter '20
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies A 6 11 10 6 10 10 9 4 5 11 15 12 5 12 126 Preston Senior '19
Ian Flanders '20
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks B 12 10 7 4 15 13 13 12 12 10 8 11 17 18 162 Kayleigh Godfrey '19 [1-14]
Giuseppe Licata '17 [1-9]
Mary Mckiever '19 [10-14]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens B 13 14 17 10 14 12 10 11 15 13 13 4 12 10 168 Laila Van Cleve '19 [1-6]
Martha Diezemann '18 [7-14]
Ryan Wilityer '18 [1-6]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe B 14 12 14 11 12 7 14 13 11 9 14 15 14 11 171 Emma Purinton '20
Maran Ilanchezhian '19
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings B 15 13 11 15 13 14 12 14 13 12 10 10 9 13 174 Lauren Pepsny '18
Angelina Graham '19
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens A 10 16 13 7 3 16 DNF 15 14 15 16 17 7 15 183 Hannah Babbitz '19
Walker Schwartz '20
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe A 16 15 15 14 16 9 17 17 16 17 17 14 15 14 212 Audrey Fulk '19
Tyler Skelton '19
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions A 17 18 16 16 17 17 16 18 17 16 11 16 16 16 227
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions B 18 17 18 17 18 18 15 16 18 18 18 18 18 17 244
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens55555555555555
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11111111111111
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks22222222222222
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings33333333333333
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions44444444444444
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers66666666666666
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats77777777777777
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies88888888888888
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe99999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens1414141414141414141414141414
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons1010101010101010101010101010
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks1111111111111111111111111111
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings1212121212121212121212121212
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions1313131313131313131313131313
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1515151515151515151515151515
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1616161616161616161616161616
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies1717171717171717171717171717
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1818181818181818181818181818

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From ENE (61°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1020.8 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn · E 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pennsylvania: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.28 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pennsylvania by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Pennsylvania, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →