University of Pennsylvania '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.50 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.113 rating points from 23 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.66 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 36 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–32 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 28–23 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 33–32 against 37.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.93 | 1.77 | 10–10 | 13.9 | −1.16 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-23 | Seahawk Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 2.94 | 9–6 | 8.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.66 | 2.54 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.64 | 1.88 | 8–4 | 9.2 | −0.77 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.38 | 2.40 | 5–9 | 5.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.89 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.8 | 3.50 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 3.24 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Qualifier A | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | 2.76 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.9 | 4.60 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.5 | 3.63 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.1 | 2.74 |
| Cayuga Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 3.01 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | 3.75 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.5 | 2.61 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.1 | 4.02 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 3.26 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.10 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 3.95 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 3.65 |
| Top 9 Regatta Women Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.9 | -1.04 |
| Navy Women's Open Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 4.01 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 3.36 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.2 | 2.66 |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 3.53 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.52 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.6 | 2.66 |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 2.24 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.7 | 2.88 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.4 | 2.85 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.42 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.6 | 1.56 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.3 | 3.21 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.0 | 1.78 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.5 | 3.04 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.1 | 2.34 |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.2 | 2.38 |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.2 | 2.13 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 2.62 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.7 | 1.44 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.5 | 2.41 |
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.4 | 3.03 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Crew | B | 9 | 12.7 | — |
| Rose Bowl | Crew | A, B | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Radial Open Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 2.43 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.5 | 0.81 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ava Esquier |  Mercy High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
