Radial Open

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/10/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	32
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	62
3	Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	73
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	75
5	George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	81
6	University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	90
7	George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	109
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	110
9	Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	120
10	University of Pennsylvania	Ava Esquier '20	127
11	George Washington University	Kia Olsson '18	162
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	163
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jessica Lietz '20	169
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Christine Moloney '17	191
15	Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	197
16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Erin Condon '17	207
17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kate Bjerregaard '19	214
18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Katherine Cox '20	223
19	Georgetown University	Emily Fung '17	239
20	Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	244

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Haddon Hughes '19	4	3	8	2	1	1	BKD	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	32
U. S. Naval Academy	Jessica Mcjones '20	5	4	4	4	7	4	7	3	2	4	2	8	6	2	62
Georgetown University	Lola Bushnell '18	3	5	12	1	5	5	3	7	6	3	11	4	5	3	73
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	9	6	3	5	3	3	6	2	11	2	10	9	2	4	75
George Washington University	Riley Legault '19	11	7	6	12	2	6	1	BKD	3	5	5	2	9	6	81
University of Pennsylvania	Lenox Butcher '20	2	1	7	3	6	2	4	4	5	8	6	11	15	16	90
George Washington University	Sarah Alexander '19	10	13	2	10	4	8	2	13	4	6	7	10	13	7	109
U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	1	2	1	9	10	10	BKD	16	12	7	4	3	17	10	110
Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	6	12	11	13	8	9	BKD	10	7	9	3	5	10	8	120
University of Pennsylvania	Ava Esquier '20	8	10	5	6	13	12	10	5	9	15	9	6	7	12	127
George Washington University	Kia Olsson '18	7	8	13	7	11	7	9	8	14	12	17	18	12	19	162
U. S. Naval Academy	Brittney Slook '20	13	11	15	16	15	16	5	12	8	11	14	12	4	11	163
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jessica Lietz '20	14	9	9	14	17	17	8	14	15	17	8	7	11	9	169
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Christine Moloney '17	16	14	14	11	14	11	14	11	10	13	13	19	16	15	191
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	20	16	18	8	9	14	11	9	16	16	15	20	8	17	197
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Erin Condon '17	19	19	16	15	18	15	12	6	13	10	16	14	20	14	207
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kate Bjerregaard '19	18	17	10	17	16	13	13	15	19	19	20	16	3	18	214
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Katherine Cox '20	15	15	20	20	12	20	16	18	20	18	19	15	14	1	223
Georgetown University	Emily Fung '17	17	18	17	18	20	19	15	17	17	20	12	17	19	13	239
Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	12	20	19	19	19	18	17	19	18	14	18	13	18	20	244

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 20 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Haddon Hughes '19	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.94	5.02	+2.08	80th → 99th	12.4	3%	3.6 / 7.2
2	Jessica Mcjones '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	2.37	3.70	+1.33	61st → 93rd	7.1	2%	4.4 / 8.8
3	Lola Bushnell '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	2.53	3.33	+0.80	65th → 88th	2.9	7%	5.2 / 8.3
4	Ellie Ungar '19	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	14/14	1.83	3.30	+1.47	46th → 87th	8.7	1%	5.4 / 10.4
5	Lenox Butcher '20	University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1	14/14	2.10	2.80	+0.69	55th → 76th	2.2	8%	6.4 / 9.6
6	Riley Legault '19	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	2.49	3.18	+0.69	63rd → 85th	2.1	25%	6.9 / 8.4
7	Sarah Alexander '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.04	2.59	+0.56	53rd → 68th	1.5	20%	7.8 / 9.8
8	Hannah Hughes '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	2.25	2.34	+0.09	59th → 60th	0.0	46%	8.8 / 9.2
9	Ava Esquier '20	University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2	14/14	1.83	2.28	+0.44	46th → 59th	1.0	34%	9.1 / 10.4
10	Rose Edwards '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.26	2.48	+0.22	59th → 62nd	0.3	57%	9.4 / 9.1
11	Kia Olsson '18	George Washington University Colonials 3	14/14	0.72	1.62	+0.90	17th → 40th	3.8	23%	11.6 / 13.6
12	Brittney Slook '20	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	1.50	1.73	+0.22	38th → 43rd	0.3	55%	11.6 / 11.4
13	Jessica Lietz '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4	14/14	1.71	1.58	−0.13	42nd → 39th	0.1	67%	12.1 / 10.8
14	Christine Moloney '17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	1.85	1.26	−0.59	46th → 30th	2.2	88%	13.6 / 10.4
15	Olivia Windemuller '19	Old Dominion University	14/14	1.24	0.86	−0.38	29th → 20th	0.8	79%	14.1 / 12.2
16	Erin Condon '17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	0.92	0.86	−0.06	21st → 20th	0.0	72%	14.8 / 13.0
17	Kate Bjerregaard '19	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	14/14	1.11	0.70	−0.41	25th → 17th	0.9	82%	15.3 / 12.6
18	Katherine Cox '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	14/14	1.70	0.04	−1.66	42nd → 6th	16.2	97%	15.9 / 10.8
19	Emily Fung '17	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	1.10	0.34	−0.76	25th → 11th	3.4	96%	17.1 / 12.5
20	Amanda Attardi '17	Christopher Newport University	14/14	1.38	-0.09	−1.46	33rd → 5th	12.3	99%	17.4 / 11.7

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

85°F

↑ 89°F ↓ 78°F

Feels like 92°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 11.7 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From S (183°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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