| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 10–5 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 9–6 |
| 3 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 9–6 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 8–7 |
| 5 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 6–9 |
| 6 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,846 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 45 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.624 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.49: a typical event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Georgetown University | 7.22 | 7.61 | 6–9 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 3 | College of Charleston | 8.03 | 8.32 | 9–6 | 8.0 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 8.31 | 8.52 | 10–5 | 9.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 8.08 | 8.29 | 9–6 | 8.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 4 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 8.27 | 7.93 | 8–7 | 9.2 | −0.34 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 6 | George Washington University | 7.41 | 6.54 | 3–12 | 5.5 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macey Mccann | Georgetown University | 2.32 | 2.71 | 6–9 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.4 | 32% |
| Elizabeth Mignon | College of Charleston | 2.13 | 2.43 | 9–6 | 8.0 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Marian Frances Williams | College of Charleston | 2.25 | 2.54 | 9–6 | 8.0 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Brittney Slook | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.84 | 3.04 | 10–5 | 9.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Amanda Majernik | University of Pennsylvania | 2.60 | 2.80 | 9–6 | 8.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Ava Esquier | University of Pennsylvania | 2.73 | 2.94 | 9–6 | 8.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | George Washington University | 2.19 | 1.31 | 3–12 | 5.5 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| Riley Legault | George Washington University | 3.07 | 2.19 | 3–12 | 5.5 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Cougars | Seahawks | Hoyas | Colonials | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–3 | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–4 | W | L | ✕ | L | L | L |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | W | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | L |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Cougars | Seahawks | Hoyas | Colonials | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–3 | L | ✕ | L | L | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Cougars | Seahawks | Hoyas | Colonials | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–3 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 1–4 | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Quakers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Brittney Slook '20 Jessica Mcjones '20 Olivia De Olazarra '22 |
Fiona Lobon '22 Kelly Milliken '21 Madeline Pruzan '21 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Amanda Majernik '22 Ava Esquier '20 Lenox Butcher '20 |
Laura Whelan '20 Kelly Hanlon '21 Jenna Weiner '21 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Elizabeth Mignon '19 Marian Frances Williams '21 Nicole Simon '20 |
Clare Perry '19 Kiera Oreardon '22 Hannah Kinder '21 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Ellie Ungar '19 Gloria Kevliciute '21 Katherine Bennett '22 |
Dyson Lord '19 Grace Papp '20 Sophia Taczak '21 Jessica Bennett '20 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Carly Broussard '21 Macey Mccann '20 Marley Mais '21 |
Olivia Van Den Born '21 Celine Bennett '20 Emmeline Vermylen '21 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Aitana Mendiguren '20 Marie Line '19 Riley Legault '19 |
Emma Mendenhall '19 Taylor Milefchik '22 Sarah Noyes '20 Alexandra Fayer '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
