University of Pennsylvania '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.88 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.088 rating points from 156 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 (fleet 0.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 50–49 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | — | 13–16 |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | — | 37–33 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (99 matches) the record is 50–49 against 54.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | crew | 2.56 | 1.49 | 2–12 | 4.2 | −1.07 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | crew | 2.25 | 2.81 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 2.79 | 1.62 | 10–10 | 13.9 | −1.16 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-23 | Seahawk Women's Team Race | crew | 2.68 | 2.89 | 9–6 | 8.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | crew | 2.54 | 2.98 | 7–8 | 5.9 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | crew | 2.45 | 2.46 | 3–5 | 3.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | crew | 2.16 | 1.39 | 8–4 | 9.2 | −0.77 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 11.2 | — |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 8.2 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 8.3 | — |
| Philly Fleet Race | Crew | A | 9 | 1.9 | — |
| Jesuit Invite | Crew | A | 12 | 6.8 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 4.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.8 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 6.0 | — |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 7.2 | — |
| Navy Women's Open Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 11.5 | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 6.0 | — |
| Central Early Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 0.97 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 11.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 14.5 | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | C | 9 | 12.4 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 16.3 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | B | 8 | 11.9 | — |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.8 | -0.79 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Crew | B | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Crew | B | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jenna Weiner |  Wellesley High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
