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Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 138
2 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 139
3 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 152
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 155
5 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 269
6 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 284
7 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 364
8 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 399
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 5 1 2 4 12 1 3 2 2 6 7 2 1 2 50 Tanner Probst '21 [1-14]
Kristen Tilley '19 [1-6, 9-14]
Ian Fitzgerald '21 [7-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats A 7 3 5 7 6 5 1 1 1 5 2 4 3 1 51 Harrison Paige '19
Brooklyn Curtin '20
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons A 1 4 1 1 1 2 7 5 3 4 10 9 6 11 65 Madeline Delvescovo '20 [1-12]
Jeffrey Proko '18 [13-14]
Alison Reed '21 [1-10]
Haley Clemson '20 [11-14]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks A 2 2 7 3 9 3 4 9 5 1 5 BKD 8 3 66 Matthew Roleke '19
Peter Teague '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks B 8 9 3 5 2 4 2 6 9 9 4 1 5 6 73 Jesse Stevenson '19 [1-2]
Andrew O'Brien '19 [3-14]
Andrew O'Brien '19 [1-2]
Jesse Stevenson '19 [3-8, 11-12]
Georgia Castoro '21 [9-10, 13-14]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats B 3 6 4 2 5 9 10 12 10 8 8 3 2 5 87 Curtis Aaron '21
Cameron Hunter '21
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons B 10 5 8 6 4 7 11 8 6 2 1 5 7 7 87 Abigail Proko '20 [1-8]
Frederick Piasecki '20 [9-14]
Elizabeth Calio '20 [1-4]
Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [5-14]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 4 10 10 10 3 6 5 11 7 DNF 3 6 9 4 105 Jenna Weiner '21 [1-14]
Matthew Linehan '21 [1-6]
Emelia Bartusiak '21 [7-14]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps B 11 16 6 9 16 8 8 4 8 7 6 8 4 8 119 Derek Safieh '21
Sean Malone '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos B 12 11 9 13 15 15 6 3 4 3 9 7 10 9 126 Marion Hopkinson '20 [1-6]
Trent Levy '21 [7-14]
Katie Purcell '20 [1-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos A 6 7 11 11 8 10 9 7 DNF 10 15 11 11 10 143 Jillian Ticatch '21
Michael Van Meter '20
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens A 9 12 12 12 10 11 12 13 11 13 13 10 13 13 164 Martha Diezemann '18 [1-14]
Chloe Hoag '20 [1-6]
Ryan Wilityer '18 [7-10]
Anna Cummings '18 [11-14]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps A 14 8 13 8 7 13 15 14 14 11 12 12 12 12 165 Madeline Mulligan '20
Amanda Kushner '21
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves B 15 13 14 14 11 14 14 DNF 13 DNF 11 BKD 15 15 197 Nicholas Browne '18
Alisher Khodjaniyazov '20
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens B 16 15 15 15 14 12 16 15 15 12 14 13 14 14 200 Sophia Caracuzzo '20 [1-14]
Anna Cummings '18 [1-6]
Chloe Hoag '20 [7-14]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves A 13 14 16 16 13 16 13 10 12 DNF BKD 14 DNS DNS 202 Jessica Kurlander '18
Danyte Reisinger '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens44332211161615151414
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11223344556677
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps556677889910101111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers6655443322111616
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks33445566778899
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves221116161515141413131212
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats88776655443322
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos7788991010111112121313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens12121111101099887766
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons99101011111212131314141515
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1313141415151616112233
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers141413131212111110109988
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks11111212131314141515161611
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves1010998877665544
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1616151514141313121211111010
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos151516161122334455

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.0 kn
avg  ·  max 15.3 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1021.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pennsylvania: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pennsylvania by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Pennsylvania, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →