University of Virginia '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.98 (fleet 1.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–25 (4%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 1–25 against 4.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.28 | -1.02 | 1–11 | 3.7 | −2.30 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.84 | -2.16 | 0–14 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb (MAISA South Series #4) | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | -0.59 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.3 | 1.79 |
| Jefferson Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 3.35 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| William and Mary Spring Open 2018 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 1.32 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.7 | 0.60 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | -0.43 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 0.79 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
