Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 12 8 20
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 12 24 36
3 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 14 34 48
4 American University American University Eagles 36 20 56
5 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 43 MRP 34 MRP 77 MRP
6 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 50 MRP 47 MRP 97 MRP
7 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 61 MRP 61 MRP 122 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 1 4 4 1 1 12 Colin Suvak '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Judson Innes '22 [3-4]
Jillian Ticatch '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 2 3 1 2 2 2 12 Nicholas Brady '19
Elise Anderson '20
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 2 2 1 3 3 14 Michael Bisson '22
Julie Coffman '22
American University American University Eagles 6 6 7 5 6 6 36 Jordan Manowitz '21 [1-6]
Zachary Forrester '20 [1-4]
Arin Kaye '21 [5-6]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 4 4 3 3 5 4 43 MRP Zachary Douglass '21
Jonathan Eaton '20
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 5 5 5 6 4 5 50 MRP Grace Wagner '19 [1-6]
Colton Nowakowski '21 [1, 4-6]
Thomas Thorp '20 [2]
Ryan Delaney '22 [3]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 7 7 6 7 7 7 61 MRP Enis Golaszewski '21
Tim Orenstein '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 2 2 1 1 1 8 Katarina Catallo '20 [1-2]
Trent Levy '21 [3-6]
Kieran Mcmahon '22 [1-2]
American University American University Eagles 2 3 3 4 6 2 20 Cala Coffman '21
Fan Tai Bridges '21
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 5 4 5 3 4 24 David Fehrle '21
Emma Corbitt '19
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 5 1 1 2 2 3 34 MRP Luke Hayes '22
Ethan Caldwell '22
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 6 4 6 7 5 6 34 Anna O'Connell '22
Merrick Tian '22
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 4 6 5 3 4 5 47 MRP Clare Wagner '22 [1, 4-6]
Chris Lukas '21 [2-3]
Alex Walters '22 [1, 4-6]
Ryan Delaney '22 [2]
No Show [3]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 7 7 7 6 7 7 61 MRP Aren Warner '20
William Gao '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles113355
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals224466
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains335577
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps557711
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers668822
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos771133
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies882244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles224466
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals335577
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains446688
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps668822
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers771133
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos882244
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies113355

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From S (183°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1021.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · SE 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.41 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →