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Webb (MAISA South Series #4)

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 125
2 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 132
3 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 150
4 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 152
5 American University American University Eagles 286
6 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 296 MRP
7 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 333
8 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri 341 MRP
9 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 361 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies A 3 4 2 2 7 2 1 9 3 2 4 8 47 Nicholas Brady '19
Emma Corbitt '19
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe A 9 7 3 4 2 9 8 4 1 4 3 3 57 Miguel Monllor '21
Elizabeth Plaster '20
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos A 6 1 4 9 5 6 5 8 4 3 1 9 61 Katarina Catallo '20 [1-5, 10-12]
Judson Innes '22 [6-9]
Judson Innes '22 [1-5, 10-12]
Katarina Catallo '20 [6-9]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe B 2 6 9 3 11 1 9 10 6 1 5 5 68 Connor Chapin '20 [1-12]
Parker Bunting '22 [1-11]
Daniel Hopkins '20 [12]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains B 1 2 1 1 1 7 7 5 8 10 7 RAF 69 Daniel Hodges '22 [1-5]
Luke Hayes '22 [6-11]
Zachary Douglass '21 [12]
Julia Burns '22 [1-5, 12]
Alexandria Brooks '22 [6-7]
Carson Cooper '22 [8-11]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains A 5 3 5 5 4 11 2 2 10 RAF 10 7 83 Ian O'Connell '20 [1-5, 12]
Bailey Hurst '20 [6-11]
Ethan Caldwell '22 [1-5, 12]
Henry Clune '21 [6, 10-11]
Harrison Kempton '22 [7-9]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies B 4 5 6 6 3 12 12 7 2 5 8 15 85 Nathan Gibson '19 [1-12]
Britt Osborne '21 [1-5, 7-12]
Lea Do '20 [6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos B 11 10 10 7 10 3 11 1 5 9 11 1 89 Trent Levy '21 [1-12]
Will Ayscue '21 [1-5, 12]
Alyssa Price '21 [6-11]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 13 12 8 11 6 4 4 3 7 6 9 6 109 MRP Harrison Bailey '23
Daniel Soos '21
American University American University Eagles B 7 15 7 12 8 10 10 13 11 7 2 12 114 Duncan Feighan '22
Fan Tai Bridges '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps A 12 14 11 14 15 8 6 6 16 8 12 4 126 Jacob Stoner '19
Kevin Luo '20
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers A 15 8 12 8 9 13 3 11 9 11 6 10 135 MRP Daniel Engbert '19
Lauryn Schiller '21
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri A 8 11 13 13 14 5 13 12 14 15 13 16 167 MRP Alex Walters '22 [1-12]
No Show [1-6]
Evan Smithers '19 [7-12]
American University American University Eagles A 10 16 17 17 12 16 16 16 15 12 14 11 172 Jordan Manowitz '21 [1-12]
Zachary Forrester '20 [1-5]
Dylan Speicher '19 [6-12]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri B 14 13 15 10 16 14 14 14 12 13 17 2 174 MRP Chris Lukas '21 [1-12]
Amanda Thoennes '22 [1-6]
Ryan Delaney '22 [7-12]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 16 9 14 15 13 15 15 15 13 14 15 13 187 MRP Ryan Calhoun '19 [1-12]
Isaac Powell '21 [1-6, 11-12]
Campbell Tate '23 [7-10]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps B 18 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 17 17 16 14 207 Anna O'Connell '22
Michal Tyrlik '20
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers B 17 17 16 16 17 RAF 17 17 18 16 DNF 17 226 MRP Zachary Vance '19
William Gao '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles111111111111
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri444444444444
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains222222222222
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps555555555555
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers666666666666
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack333333333333
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos777777777777
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies888888888888
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles101010101010101010101010
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America The Catholic U Ameri131313131313131313131313
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains111111111111111111111111
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps141414141414141414141414
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers151515151515151515151515
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack121212121212121212121212
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos161616161616161616161616
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies171717171717171717171717
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe181818181818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Jordan Manowitz '21 [1-12] Zachary Forrester '20 [1-5]
Dylan Speicher '19 [6-12]
Eagles Duncan Feighan '22 Fan Tai Bridges '21
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Alex Walters '22 [1-12] No Show [1-6]
Evan Smithers '19 [7-12]
The Catholic U Ameri Chris Lukas '21 [1-12] Amanda Thoennes '22 [1-6]
Ryan Delaney '22 [7-12]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Ian O'Connell '20 [1-5, 12]
Bailey Hurst '20 [6-11]		 Ethan Caldwell '22 [1-5, 12]
Henry Clune '21 [6, 10-11]
Harrison Kempton '22 [7-9]
Captains Daniel Hodges '22 [1-5]
Luke Hayes '22 [6-11]
Zachary Douglass '21 [12]		 Julia Burns '22 [1-5, 12]
Alexandria Brooks '22 [6-7]
Carson Cooper '22 [8-11]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Ryan Calhoun '19 [1-12] Isaac Powell '21 [1-6, 11-12]
Campbell Tate '23 [7-10]
Wolfpack Harrison Bailey '23 Daniel Soos '21
University of Maryland University of Maryland Jacob Stoner '19 Kevin Luo '20
Terps Anna O'Connell '22 Michal Tyrlik '20
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Daniel Engbert '19 Lauryn Schiller '21
Retrievers Zachary Vance '19 William Gao '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Katarina Catallo '20 [1-5, 10-12]
Judson Innes '22 [6-9]		 Judson Innes '22 [1-5, 10-12]
Katarina Catallo '20 [6-9]
Wahoos Trent Levy '21 [1-12] Will Ayscue '21 [1-5, 12]
Alyssa Price '21 [6-11]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Nicholas Brady '19 Emma Corbitt '19
Hokies Nathan Gibson '19 [1-12] Britt Osborne '21 [1-5, 7-12]
Lea Do '20 [6]
William and Mary William and Mary Miguel Monllor '21 Elizabeth Plaster '20
Tribe Connor Chapin '20 [1-12] Parker Bunting '22 [1-11]
Daniel Hopkins '20 [12]

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn · S 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christopher Newport: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →