William and Mary Spring Open 2018

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 17 20 37
2 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 16 23 39
3 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 20 24 44
4 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 30 15 45
5 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 31 30 61
6 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 24 43 67
7 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 51 17 68
8 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 49 49 98
9 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 46 64 110
10 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 58 56 114
11 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 54 61 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 4 7 2 1 1 16 Andrew O'Brien '19
Georgia Castoro '21
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 2 1 2 1 4 7 17 Ava Haag '21
Ann Bell '20
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 3 3 1 3 8 2 20 Benjamin Kempton '18 [1-6]
Aerin Gilday '21 [1-4]
Reagan Mason '20 [5-6]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 4 5 4 4 2 5 24 Patrick Mazzeo '18
Daniel Powers '18
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 5 2 8 6 3 6 30 Nicholas Brady '19
Britt Osborne '21
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 7 8 3 5 5 3 31 Trent Levy '21
Michael Van Meter '20
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 6 11 11 8 6 4 46 Katie Purcell '20
Brian Lithen '20
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 10 6 9 7 9 49 Haley Clemson '20
Elizabeth Calio '20
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 11 6 5 11 10 8 51 Veronica Lane '19 [1-6]
Ryan Hallak '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Cahill '18 [3-4]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 10 7 10 7 9 11 54 Katie Hogan '18 [1-4]
Emily Cassio '18 [5-6]
Ye Hyun (Anna) Seo '18 [1-4]
Hannah O'Neil '18 [5-6]
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 9 9 9 10 11 10 58 Michal Szelwach '19 [1-6]
Rachel Stubler '21 [1-2]
Wesley Wohlford '21 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 3 2 2 1 1 6 15 Christopher Magno '22
Gustav Berner '21
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 1 1 3 4 5 3 17 Nina Van De Vaarst '19
Katherine Foley '19
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds 2 5 5 3 4 1 20 Erin O'Connor '20
Genevieve Lee '20
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 8 6 1 2 2 4 23 Jesse Stevenson '19
No Show
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 5 3 6 5 3 2 24 Ian O'Connell '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Zachary Douglass '21 [3-4]
Jonathan Eaton '20 [1-4]
Henry Womble '20 [5-6]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 4 4 4 7 6 5 30 Jillian Ticatch '21
Emma Mcphail-Snyder '19
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 1 7 8 7 6 7 8 43 Thomas Griffiths '18
Hailey Park '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 10 9 9 8 7 49 Tobias Green '22
Cody Mattson '21
Gannon University Gannon University Knights 11 9 8 8 10 10 56 Angela Mackay '20 [1-6]
Megan Bessel '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Stephen Knouse '19 [3-4]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 10 11 DNF 10 9 9 61 August Williams '18
Katelyn Wright '18
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 9 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 Hannah Lothrop '21
Alexander Knoop '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains113355
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons224466
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights335588
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds446699
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks55881010
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks66991111
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 18810101212
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 299111111
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies1010121222
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 111111133
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 212122244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains224466
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons335588
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights446699
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Greyhounds55881010
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks66991111
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks8810101212
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 199111111
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 21010121222
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies11111133
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 112122244
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe 2113355

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SSE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.49 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →