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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 56 56
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 63 63
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 76 76
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 76 76
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 91 91
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 95 95
7 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 108 108
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 119 119
9 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 125 125
10 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 136 136
11 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 142 142
12 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 145 145
13 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 161 161
14 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 164 164
15 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 166 166
16 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 177 177
17 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 203 203
18 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 214 214
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 4 1 4 7 7 1 BYE BYE 1 10 7 4 1 1 56 Kenneth Corsig '23
Declan Lombard '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 2 3 1 2 1 10 5 16 2 1 10 3 5 2 63 Ian Beckley '20
Caroline Martocci '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 1 13 9 1 2 4 2 1 14 4 3 14 3 5 76 Michael Munger '20
Audrey Morin '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 5 5 12 3 9 5 6 3 5 5 4 5 6 3 76 Julia Johansson '23 [1-5, 13-14]
Samuel Gavula '24 [6-12]
Kelly Hanlon '21 [1-5]
Dana Hackett '20 [6-14]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 10 2 5 9 12 6 1 15 4 8 1 10 4 4 91 Pierre Thibodeau '20
Tory Mileti '22
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 12 8 2 4 11 12 3 4 BYE BYE 5 1 10 9 95 Amanda Majernik '22
Jenna Weiner '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 3 7 10 5 5 9 12 2 7 13 2 15 11 7 108 John Wilcenski '21
Brian Buckley '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 8 6 11 16 3 7 7 10 11 12 12 6 2 8 119 Ethan Andersen '20
Peter Jordan '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 6 9 14 12 4 8 4 7 8 3 9 12 12 17 125 Adam Krzeszowski '21 [1-14]
Christopher Adkins '23 [1-4]
Amanda Yeam '22 [5-14]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 9 14 3 6 14 11 11 12 13 9 BYE BYE 8 6 136 Payton Canavan '23
Elizabeth Hupp '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 7 10 7 14 15 13 9 8 3 6 14 9 14 13 142 William Sesack '21
Kyle Gelderman '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 11 11 8 13 8 2 13 13 10 2 13 13 13 15 145 Porter Killian '23
Laura Whelan '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 15 17 13 10 10 14 15 9 12 11 6 11 7 11 161 Sajan Alagiri '21
Jessie Stoller '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 17 16 6 18 13 3 10 5 16 17 8 16 9 10 164 Finn Rauch '23 [1-9]
Clara Guarascio '22 [10-14]
Jordan Emery '21 [1-9]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 13 12 15 15 16 16 14 6 6 7 11 8 15 12 166 Matthew Alfano '21
Lauren Miller '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 16 18 18 8 6 BYE 8 11 15 15 15 2 16 16 177 Alex Fowkes '20
Halle Buescher '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 18 4 17 11 17 17 16 14 9 16 16 17 17 14 203 Samuel Parsons '21 [1-14]
Amelia Clark '23 [1-6]
Eddy Harris '22 [7-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 14 15 16 17 18 15 17 17 17 14 17 7 BYE BYE 214 James Ozaki '23
Kathryn Brewer '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 111111233445566
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 22222211818171716161515
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 333333455667788
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1444443221118181717
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 25555567788991010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 366666544332211
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 177777899101011111212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 288888766554433
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 399999101111121213131414
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 11313131313141515161617171818
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214141414141312121111101099
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3151515151516171718181122
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 11010101010988776655
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 21111111111121313141415151616
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 31212121212111010998877
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 11616161616151414131312121111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 217171717171811223344
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 31818181818171616151514141313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 Alex Fowkes '20 Halle Buescher '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 Ethan Andersen '20 Peter Jordan '23
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 Sajan Alagiri '21 Jessie Stoller '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 Kenneth Corsig '23 Declan Lombard '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 Matthew Alfano '21 Lauren Miller '23
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 Payton Canavan '23 Elizabeth Hupp '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 Ian Beckley '20 Caroline Martocci '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 Michael Munger '20 Audrey Morin '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 Pierre Thibodeau '20 Tory Mileti '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 William Sesack '21 Kyle Gelderman '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 John Wilcenski '21 Brian Buckley '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 Finn Rauch '23 [1-9]
Clara Guarascio '22 [10-14]		 Jordan Emery '21 [1-9]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 Adam Krzeszowski '21 [1-14] Christopher Adkins '23 [1-4]
Amanda Yeam '22 [5-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 Samuel Parsons '21 [1-14] Amelia Clark '23 [1-6]
Eddy Harris '22 [7-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 James Ozaki '23 Kathryn Brewer '22
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 Julia Johansson '23 [1-5, 13-14]
Samuel Gavula '24 [6-12]		 Kelly Hanlon '21 [1-5]
Dana Hackett '20 [6-14]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 Amanda Majernik '22 Jenna Weiner '21
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 Porter Killian '23 Laura Whelan '20

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From S (179°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1024.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Fordham: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.38 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →