Fordham University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.89 (fleet 2.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–12 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 2–12 against 1.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 1.94 | 2.16 | 2–12 | 1.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 3.31 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 2.83 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 2.77 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 1.95 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.8 | -0.43 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.3 | 1.87 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.4 | 2.63 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.5 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 1.56 |
| KP Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 2.17 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 2.08 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.5 | 2.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Payton Canavan |  The Prout School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
