SUNY Maritime College '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 (fleet 2.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–17 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–17 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 3–17 against 4.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-05 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.60 | 1.22 | 3–17 | 4.1 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 81% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.5 | 2.38 |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.0 | 0.76 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.1 | 2.10 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.9 | 2.70 |
| MAISA Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 2.35 |
| KP Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.9 | 1.47 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.8 | 1.56 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 2.56 |
| KP Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 1.33 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.0 | 1.84 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 1.29 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 16.0 | 1.05 |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.4 | 1.53 |
| Leroy Grant | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 0.41 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 14.4 | 1.10 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 1.13 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.6 | 1.85 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.9 | 0.87 |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 16.9 | -2.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
