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Navy Team Race Invite

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 16–4
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 13–7
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9–11
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9–11
5 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 50 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.610 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		46.85
school +0.20, home +0.35		Aubin Hattendorf / Hunter Anderson 7–3
Louis Margay / Faith Southwick 2.17 7–3
Tanner Kelly / Linnea Forsberg 7–3
Caden Scheiblauer / Julia Christie 2.47 9–1
Jack Carminati / Hunter Anderson 2.29 9–1
Cooper Walshe / Catherine Aitken 9–1		52%16–4 (80%)+5.6
2University of Pennsylvania
Quakers		27.21Torrey Chisari / Amelia Popp
Sofia Segalla / Ella Marsden
Madeleine Rice / Caroline Dannacher		59%13–7 (65%)+1.2
3Fordham University
Rams		17.00
school +0.24		Patrick Dolan / Kristen Healy
Peter Lobaugh / Rebecca Keller
Beckett Kumler / Maggie Costikyan		64%9–11 (45%)−3.8
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		36.67
school +0.08		Ella Withington / Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld
Heather Kerns / Tess Weber
Brook Wood / Frances Depke		54%9–11 (45%)−1.8
5SUNY Maritime College
Privateers		55.75
school −0.15		Nick Chisari / Mark Modzelewski
Ben Hosford / Nicole Schafer
Clara Guarascio / Rebecca Runyan 1–9
Clara Guarascio / Eileen Mehrkens 2–8		20%3–17 (15%)−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1U. S. Naval Academy6.858.4516–410.4+1.606.2<1%
2University of Pennsylvania7.217.4813–711.9+0.270.238%
5SUNY Maritime College5.755.373–174.1−0.380.381%
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges6.676.279–1110.8−0.400.586%
3Fordham University7.006.159–1112.8−0.852.498%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Aubin HattendorfU. S. Naval Academy1.022.777–32.9+1.755.11%
Tanner KellyU. S. Naval Academy1.793.537–32.9+1.755.11%
Jack CarminatiU. S. Naval Academy2.293.489–17.5+1.181.222%
Cooper WalsheU. S. Naval Academy2.163.359–17.5+1.181.222%
Torrey ChisariUniversity of Pennsylvania2.162.4413–711.9+0.270.238%
Madeleine RiceUniversity of Pennsylvania1.752.0213–711.9+0.270.238%
Clara GuarascioSUNY Maritime College1.601.223–174.1−0.380.381%
Ben HosfordSUNY Maritime College1.030.653–174.1−0.380.381%
Beckett KumlerFordham University1.770.919–1112.8−0.852.498%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges59%
12University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College81%
13U. S. Naval AcademyFordham University23%upset
14Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College73%
15University of PennsylvaniaFordham University50%
16U. S. Naval AcademyHobart and William Smith Colleges32%upset
17Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College80%
18U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania64%
19University of PennsylvaniaHobart and William Smith Colleges62%
110U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College89%
211Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges58%
212University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College81%
213U. S. Naval AcademyFordham University25%upset
214Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College72%
215University of PennsylvaniaFordham University54%
216U. S. Naval AcademyHobart and William Smith Colleges33%upset
217Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College78%
218U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania62%
219Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania37%upset
220U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College88%
321Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges58%
322University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College81%
323Fordham UniversityU. S. Naval Academy74%
324Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College71%
325University of PennsylvaniaFordham University55%
326Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy67%
327SUNY Maritime CollegeFordham University22%upset
328U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania62%
329Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania36%upset
330U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College88%
431Fordham UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges58%
432University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College81%
433U. S. Naval AcademyFordham University26%upset
434SUNY Maritime CollegeHobart and William Smith Colleges29%upset
435University of PennsylvaniaFordham University56%
436U. S. Naval AcademyHobart and William Smith Colleges33%upset
437Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College77%
438University of PennsylvaniaU. S. Naval Academy39%upset
439University of PennsylvaniaHobart and William Smith Colleges64%
440U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College87%
541Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University42%upset
542University of PennsylvaniaSUNY Maritime College81%
543U. S. Naval AcademyFordham University26%upset
544Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College71%
545Fordham UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania44%upset
546Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy66%
547SUNY Maritime CollegeFordham University23%upset
548U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania61%
549University of PennsylvaniaHobart and William Smith Colleges64%
550U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College87%

Round 1

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersRamsStatesmenPrivateers
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–0✕WWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers3–1L✕WWW
Fordham University Rams2–2LL✕WW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1–3LLL✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersRamsStatesmenPrivateers
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–0✕WWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–2L✕WLW
Fordham University Rams2–2LL✕WW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–2LWL✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersRamsStatesmenPrivateers
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen2–2✕WLLW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–2L✕WLW
Fordham University Rams2–2WL✕WL
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen3–1WWL✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–3LLWL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersRamsStatesmenPrivateers
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–1✕LWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers4–0W✕WWW
Fordham University Rams2–2LL✕WW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen0–4LLL✕L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–3LLLW✕

Round 5

TeamRec.MidshipmenQuakersRamsStatesmenPrivateers
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–1✕WWLW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers2–2L✕LWW
Fordham University Rams1–3LW✕LL
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen3–1WLW✕W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–3LLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Fordham University Rams 2-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-5-6
2 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
3 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
5 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
6 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-5-6
7 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
8 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
9 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
10 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 DNF def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
11 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
12 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
13 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6
14 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
15 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-5 def. Fordham University Rams 1-4-6
16 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
17 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
18 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-6
20 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
21 Fordham University Rams 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
22 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-5-6
23 Fordham University Rams 1-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-5-6
24 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
25 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
26 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-3-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-4-5
27 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
28 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
29 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-6
30 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6
31 Fordham University Rams 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
32 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
33 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
34 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
35 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-4 def. Fordham University Rams 1-5-6
36 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
37 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
38 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-5-6
39 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
40 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-5-6
41 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
42 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-5
43 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. Fordham University Rams 2-4-5
44 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-4-6
45 Fordham University Rams 2-3-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-5-6
46 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-5-6
47 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
48 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-5-6
49 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-5-6
50 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-5-6

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1030.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From SSE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1030.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →