MAISA Women's Championship

Women's
HostNavy
Date04/22/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ/Z420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	75	44	119
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	51	92	143
3	George Washington University	Colonials	69	83	152
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	58	99	157
5	Cornell University	Big Red	98	63	161
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	106	73	179
7	Fordham University	Rams	83	120	203
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	95	122	217
9	University of Virginia	Wahoos	122	120	242
10	Christopher Newport University	Captains	129	125	254
11	Columbia University	Lions	169	164	333
12	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	162	189	351
13	Monmouth University	Hawks	231	147	378
14	SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	213	175	388
15	Queen's University	Gaels	201	206	407
16	Drexel University	Dragons	189	226	415
17	William and Mary	Tribe	244	247	491

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	1	3	4	4	2	5	4	4	3	1	5	4	2	3	6	51	Rose Edwards '18 Emily Fung '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5	2	3	13	8	2	1	3	1	4	3	5	5	2	1	58	Bailey Carter '19 Sarah Warren '18
George Washington University	Colonials	4	10	2	5	3	9	3	5	4	2	4	8	1	4	5	69	Miranda Bakos '18 Isabel Strachan '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3	1	9	12	6	1	5	1	7	5	6	3	3	6	7	75	Carolyn Smith '17 Julia Monro '17
Fordham University	Rams	9	11	1	2	4	4	2	2	12	7	1	7	6	11	4	83	Adelaide Ferguson '17 Annika Ekholm '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7	4	11	7	1	7	8	9	6	6	7	1	12	7	2	95	Hannah Hughes '17 Sarah Barkley '19
Cornell University	Big Red	8	5	8	1	10	11	7	6	2	3	10	10	9	5	3	98	Sebby Turner '20 [1-11, 14-15] Gillian Boehringer '18 [12-13] Diana Otis '19 [1-11, 14-15]
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	6	8	7	3	7	6	10	7	8	8	9	9	7	1	10	106	Ava Esquier '20 Dana Hackett '20
University of Virginia	Wahoos	10	7	10	6	9	8	9	8	5	14	12	2	4	10	8	122	Julia Gowell '18 [1-15] Colleen Roney '18 [1-6, 13-15] Waverlee Harvey '18 [7-12]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	11	9	6	10	5	10	11	12	9	10	2	6	10	9	9	129	Amanda Attardi '17 Kaitlyn Reilly '18
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	13	13	13	8	13	3	15	10	10	9	8	12	8	14	13	162	Olivia Windemuller '19 Victoria Ewing '19
Columbia University	Lions	2	6	5	11	11	13	12	16	11	16	14	15	15	8	14	169	Antonia Leggett '19 [1-15] Lily Taylor '18 [1-6, 9-15] Claire Johnston '19 [7-8]
Drexel University	Dragons	15	14	14	14	16	14	6	11	13	12	11	13	13	12	11	189	Madeline Delvescovo '20 Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Queen's University	Gaels	12	15	12	9	12	16	14	13	17	11	13	11	17	17	12	201	Christina Black '19 Simone Larose '17
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	16	12	15	15	15	15	13	15	14	13	15	14	11	13	17	213	Maisy Claudio '18 Sara Conway '16
Monmouth University	Hawks	14	16	16	17	14	12	16	14	16	15	17	17	16	16	15	231	Veronica Lane '19 Katherine Foley '19
William and Mary	Tribe	17	17	17	16	17	17	17	17	15	17	16	16	14	15	16	244	Audrey Fulk '19 [1-15] Hannah O'Neil '18 [1-6] Ye Hyun (Anna) Seo '18 [7-15]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT	Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	1	1	5	6	1	1	1	4	7	1	5	1	1	3	6	44	Greer Wattson '17 Elizabeth Dennison '17
Cornell University	Big Red	2	3	6	4	4	4	2	1	3	7	9	8	7	1	2	63	Gabby Rizika '20 Kimberly Wong '19
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5	2	2	1	8	9	9	6	1	6	1	2	6	12	3	73	Lenox Butcher '20 Laura Whelan '20
George Washington University	Colonials	8	11	4	5	5	3	4	2	10	4	6	7	2	8	4	83	Riley Legault '19 Alexandra Fayer '19
Georgetown University	Hoyas	6	14	9	12	6	2	3	10	2	2	8	3	12	2	1	92	Lola Bushnell '18 [1-2, 5-12, 14-15] Meaghan Macrae '18 [3-4] Macey Mccann '20 [13] Meaghan Macrae '18 [1-2, 5-12, 14-15] Hannah Hess '19 [3-4] Maggie Kelly '17 [13]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9	5	1	8	9	6	7	12	8	3	2	6	4	11	8	99	Katherine Cox '20 [1-10] Christine Moloney '17 [11-15] Kate Homet '19 [1-10]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	3	13	8	2	14	8	10	3	6	10	12	4	8	9	10	120	Anna Louise Devanny '17 [1-15] Katherine Green '19 [1-13] Waverlee Harvey '18 [14-15]
Fordham University	Rams	7	8	3	13	3	5	13	7	14	13	4	5	13	7	5	120	Amanda Stapp '18 [1-8, 11-15] Grace Howie '20 [9-10] Katherine Jones '18 [1-8, 11-15]
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13	4	10	7	2	11	6	11	4	5	7	14	15	6	7	122	Jessica Mcjones '20 [1-12] Mary Robertson '17 [13-15] Molly Hanson '17 [1-12]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	11	6	14	15	10	7	5	8	9	8	3	12	3	5	9	125	Anna Patterson '20 [1-2, 5-15] Laura Kilgore '17 [3-4] Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 9-10, 12-15] Anna Patterson '20 [3-4] Mikaela Farrugia '20 [5-8, 11]
Monmouth University	Hawks	12	12	7	10	12	14	8	5	11	11	11	13	5	4	12	147	Kayleigh Godfrey '19 Amanda Nuse '17
Columbia University	Lions	14	7	12	9	11	10	12	9	5	12	15	9	11	14	14	164	Isabel De La Torre '20 Bailey Fryer '18
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	10	9	13	14	7	15	11	13	17	9	13	11	9	13	11	175	Samantha Mislinski '19 Micayla Beyer '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4	10	11	11	13	13	15	14	15	14	17	10	16	10	16	189	Elleanor Wells '18 [1-15] Abigail Lockler '18 [1-10, 12-15] Molly Sternberg '17 [11]
Queen's University	Gaels	16	16	15	3	16	12	16	15	12	15	10	15	17	15	13	206	Natalie Tanczak '19 Julia Manarin '17
Drexel University	Dragons	15	15	16	16	15	17	14	16	13	16	14	16	10	16	17	226	Abigail Proko '20 [1-6, 11-13] Haley Clemson '20 [7-10, 14-15] Elizabeth Calio '20 [1-6, 11-13]
William and Mary	Tribe	17	17	17	17	17	16	17	17	16	17	16	17	14	17	15	247	Sarah Raymond '20 [1-6, 10-15] Hannah O'Neil '18 [7-9] Emily Cassio '18 [1-4, 7-14] Ye Hyun (Anna) Seo '18 [5-6] Hannah O'Neil '18 [15]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
Columbia University Lions	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13
Cornell University Big Red	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15
Fordham University Rams	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
George Washington University Colonials	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17
Georgetown University Hoyas	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
Monmouth University Hawks	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Queen's University Gaels	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
University of Virginia Wahoos	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
William and Mary Tribe	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8
Columbia University Lions	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13
Cornell University Big Red	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15
Fordham University Rams	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
George Washington University Colonials	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17
Georgetown University Hoyas	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1
Monmouth University Hawks	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Queen's University Gaels	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5
University of Virginia Wahoos	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9
William and Mary Tribe	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	Kaitlyn Reilly '18
Captains	Anna Patterson '20 [1-2, 5-15] Laura Kilgore '17 [3-4]	Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 9-10, 12-15] Anna Patterson '20 [3-4] Mikaela Farrugia '20 [5-8, 11]
Columbia University	Antonia Leggett '19 [1-15]	Lily Taylor '18 [1-6, 9-15] Claire Johnston '19 [7-8]
Lions	Isabel De La Torre '20	Bailey Fryer '18
Cornell University	Sebby Turner '20 [1-11, 14-15] Gillian Boehringer '18 [12-13]	Diana Otis '19 [1-11, 14-15]
Big Red	Gabby Rizika '20	Kimberly Wong '19
Drexel University	Madeline Delvescovo '20	Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Dragons	Abigail Proko '20 [1-6, 11-13] Haley Clemson '20 [7-10, 14-15]	Elizabeth Calio '20 [1-6, 11-13]
Fordham University	Adelaide Ferguson '17	Annika Ekholm '20
Rams	Amanda Stapp '18 [1-8, 11-15] Grace Howie '20 [9-10]	Katherine Jones '18 [1-8, 11-15]
George Washington University	Miranda Bakos '18	Isabel Strachan '18
Colonials	Riley Legault '19	Alexandra Fayer '19
Georgetown University	Rose Edwards '18	Emily Fung '17
Hoyas	Lola Bushnell '18 [1-2, 5-12, 14-15] Meaghan Macrae '18 [3-4] Macey Mccann '20 [13]	Meaghan Macrae '18 [1-2, 5-12, 14-15] Hannah Hess '19 [3-4] Maggie Kelly '17 [13]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bailey Carter '19	Sarah Warren '18
Statesmen	Katherine Cox '20 [1-10] Christine Moloney '17 [11-15]	Kate Homet '19 [1-10]
Monmouth University	Veronica Lane '19	Katherine Foley '19
Hawks	Kayleigh Godfrey '19	Amanda Nuse '17
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	Victoria Ewing '19
Monarchs	Elleanor Wells '18 [1-15]	Abigail Lockler '18 [1-10, 12-15] Molly Sternberg '17 [11]
Queen's University	Christina Black '19	Simone Larose '17
Gaels	Natalie Tanczak '19	Julia Manarin '17
SUNY Stony Brook	Maisy Claudio '18	Sara Conway '16
Seawolves	Samantha Mislinski '19	Micayla Beyer '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Carolyn Smith '17	Julia Monro '17
Seahawks	Greer Wattson '17	Elizabeth Dennison '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	Sarah Barkley '19
Midshipmen	Jessica Mcjones '20 [1-12] Mary Robertson '17 [13-15]	Molly Hanson '17 [1-12]
University of Pennsylvania	Ava Esquier '20	Dana Hackett '20
Quakers	Lenox Butcher '20	Laura Whelan '20
University of Virginia	Julia Gowell '18 [1-15]	Colleen Roney '18 [1-6, 13-15] Waverlee Harvey '18 [7-12]
Wahoos	Anna Louise Devanny '17 [1-15]	Katherine Green '19 [1-13] Waverlee Harvey '18 [14-15]
William and Mary	Audrey Fulk '19 [1-15]	Hannah O'Neil '18 [1-6] Ye Hyun (Anna) Seo '18 [7-15]
Tribe	Sarah Raymond '20 [1-6, 10-15] Hannah O'Neil '18 [7-9]	Emily Cassio '18 [1-4, 7-14] Ye Hyun (Anna) Seo '18 [5-6] Hannah O'Neil '18 [15]

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 93% · Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From NNE (31°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1013.9 hPa Rain0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · E 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Navy: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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