Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/19/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	17–3
2	Cornell University	Big Red	15–5
3	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	12–8
4	George Washington University	Colonials	8–12
5	Washington College	Shoremen	4–16
6	Fordham University	Rams	4–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,510 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 60 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.619 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.53 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	10.03	Jack Marshall / Carolyn Dahl 3.21 Roger Dorr / Antonia Leggett 3.48 14–2 Jack Gerli / Maggie Kelly 3.24 13–3 Roger Dorr / Claire Mohun 3.48 3–1 Jack Gerli / Claire Mohun 3.28 4–0	92%	17–3 (85%)	−1.5
2	Cornell University Big Red	2	8.53 school +0.15	Connor Kelter / Julie Barbera 2.94 Clark Uhl / Claire Riedman 2.64 Alex Woloshyn / Lindsay Gimple 2.69	69%	15–5 (75%)	+1.2
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6	6.37 school −0.21	Maximiliano Agnese / Catie Hopkins Drew Gallagher / Lucy Sergeant 2.82 Keen Butcher / Sarah Punzel 2.29	21%	12–8 (60%)	+7.7
4	George Washington University Colonials	4	7.30 school −0.21	Colin Kennedy / Kelly Weigold 2.38 Wade Wagner / Henry Young Adam Didomizio / Matthew Homa	42%	8–12 (40%)	−0.4
5	Washington College Shoremen	5	6.74 school +0.23, home +0.23	Eric Siegel / Lindsey Arnstein 2.74 Alexander Smith / Bridgette Hindt 1.66 Hannah Schmidt / Griffin Rodrigue 1.76 3–9 Hannah Schmidt / Allison Cochran 1.74 1–7	29%	4–16 (20%)	−1.8
6	Fordham University Rams	3	7.50 school −0.08	Anders Ekholm / Gabrielle Mascio 2.25 Matt Cappetta / Katherine Jones Roberto Stevens / Madeleine Sims	47%	4–16 (20%)	−5.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	University of Pennsylvania	6.37	8.47	12–8	4.3	+2.10	12.0	<1%
2	Cornell University	8.53	8.98	15–5	13.8	+0.44	0.4	35%
4	George Washington University	7.30	7.20	8–12	8.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
5	Washington College	6.74	6.16	4–16	5.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
1	Georgetown University	10.03	9.22	17–3	18.5	−0.81	0.9	94%
6	Fordham University	7.50	5.94	4–16	9.3	−1.56	5.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Maximiliano Agnese	University of Pennsylvania	1.06	3.17	12–8	4.3	+2.10	12.0	<1%
Drew Gallagher	University of Pennsylvania	2.82	4.92	12–8	4.3	+2.10	12.0	<1%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.29	4.39	12–8	4.3	+2.10	12.0	<1%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	2.94	3.39	15–5	13.8	+0.44	0.4	35%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	2.64	3.08	15–5	13.8	+0.44	0.4	35%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.69	3.14	15–5	13.8	+0.44	0.4	35%
Colin Kennedy	George Washington University	2.38	2.28	8–12	8.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
Adam Didomizio	George Washington University	2.28	2.18	8–12	8.4	−0.10	0.0	67%
Eric Siegel	Washington College	2.74	2.16	4–16	5.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
Hannah Schmidt	Washington College	1.76	1.19	4–16	5.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
Alexander Smith	Washington College	1.66	1.09	4–16	5.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.21	2.39	17–3	18.5	−0.81	0.9	94%
Jack Gerli	Georgetown University	3.24	2.42	17–3	18.5	−0.81	0.9	94%
Anders Ekholm	Fordham University	2.25	0.69	4–16	9.3	−1.56	5.8	>99%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	2.58	1.02	4–16	9.3	−1.56	5.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	George Washington University	95%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	25%	upset
1	3	Cornell University	Washington College	86%
1	4	Georgetown University	Fordham University	94%
1	5	George Washington University	Washington College	63%
1	6	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	9%	upset
1	7	Washington College	Fordham University	35%	upset
1	8	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	9	Cornell University	George Washington University	78%
1	10	Washington College	University of Pennsylvania	61%
1	11	George Washington University	Fordham University	46%	upset
1	12	Georgetown University	Cornell University	82%
1	13	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	73%
1	14	Georgetown University	Washington College	97%
1	15	Cornell University	Fordham University	75%
2	16	Georgetown University	Fordham University	93%
2	17	Cornell University	George Washington University	78%
2	18	University of Pennsylvania	Washington College	40%	upset
2	19	Cornell University	Fordham University	74%
2	20	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
2	21	George Washington University	Washington College	64%
2	22	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
2	23	Fordham University	George Washington University	55%
2	24	Georgetown University	Washington College	96%
2	25	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	28%	upset
2	26	Georgetown University	Cornell University	82%
2	27	Fordham University	Washington College	69%
2	28	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	24%	upset
2	30	Cornell University	Washington College	86%
3	31	Cornell University	Fordham University	73%
3	32	Georgetown University	Washington College	96%
3	33	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	29%	upset
3	34	Cornell University	Washington College	86%
3	35	George Washington University	Fordham University	44%	upset
3	36	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	97%
3	37	Washington College	George Washington University	35%	upset
3	38	Cornell University	Georgetown University	19%	upset
3	39	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	24%	upset
3	40	George Washington University	Georgetown University	6%	upset
3	41	Fordham University	Washington College	70%
3	42	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
3	43	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
3	44	George Washington University	Cornell University	23%	upset
3	45	University of Pennsylvania	Washington College	42%	upset
4	46	Cornell University	Washington College	86%
4	47	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	24%	upset
4	48	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
4	49	University of Pennsylvania	Washington College	43%	upset
4	50	Georgetown University	Cornell University	81%
4	51	Fordham University	George Washington University	57%
4	52	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	3%	upset
4	53	Washington College	Fordham University	30%	upset
4	54	Cornell University	George Washington University	77%
4	55	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
4	56	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
4	57	George Washington University	Washington College	65%
4	58	Cornell University	Fordham University	71%
4	59	Georgetown University	Washington College	96%
4	60	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	30%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Quakers	Colonials	Shoremen	Rams
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Quakers	Colonials	Shoremen	Rams
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Washington College Shoremen	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Quakers	Colonials	Shoremen	Rams
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	W	W	L	✕	L	W
Washington College Shoremen	1–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Quakers	Colonials	Shoremen	Rams
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Washington College Shoremen	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
2	Quakers	2-5-6	def.	Rams	1-3-4 DSQ
3	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
6	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
7	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
8	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
9	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
10	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
11	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
12	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
13	Colonials	3-4-6	def.	Quakers	1-2-5 RAF
14	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
16	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
17	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
18	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
19	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
21	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
22	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
23	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
24	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Shoremen	2-4-5
25	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
26	Hoyas	1-5-6	def.	Big Red	2-3-4 DSQ
27	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Shoremen	2-3-6
28	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
29	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
30	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Shoremen	2-4-6
31	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
32	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
33	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
34	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
35	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
36	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
37	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
38	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
39	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
40	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
41	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Shoremen	2-4-5
42	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
44	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
45	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
46	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
47	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
49	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
51	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
52	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
53	Shoremen	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
54	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
55	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
56	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
57	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
58	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
60	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Gerli '17 Jack Marshall '18 Roger Dorr '18	Maggie Kelly '17 Claire Mohun '19 Carolyn Dahl '18 Antonia Leggett '19
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18	Lindsay Gimple '17 Claire Riedman '16 Julie Barbera '17
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Drew Gallagher '18 Keen Butcher '18 Maximiliano Agnese '17	Lucy Sergeant '18 Sarah Punzel '19 Catie Hopkins '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Adam Didomizio '19 Colin Kennedy '17 Wade Wagner '19	Matthew Homa '18 Kelly Weigold '18 Henry Young '16
Washington College	Shoremen	Alexander Smith '17 Eric Siegel '16 Hannah Schmidt '17	Bridgette Hindt '18 Lindsey Arnstein '18 Griffin Rodrigue '18 Allison Cochran '18
Fordham University	Rams	Anders Ekholm '17 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19	Gabrielle Mascio '18 Katherine Jones '18 Madeleine Sims '16

Conditions — 03/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 8.1 kn

Gusts to 16.9 kn

From ENE (60°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1020.0 hPa Rain0.12 in Snow0.03 in

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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