University of Pennsylvania '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (fleet 3.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–43 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 7–32 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 14–11 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 11–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 7–32 against 6.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 3.79 | 4–17 | 2.5 | +0.63 | 0.7 | 22% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.28 | 2.79 | 3–15 | 4.3 | −0.49 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.1 | 4.17 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 4.34 |
| MAISA Club Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.9 | 3.08 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.72 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.9 | 4.00 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 3.82 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.2 | 3.60 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.5 | 4.98 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 2.71 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.7 | 4.13 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.1 | 3.12 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.4 | 3.27 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.7 | 3.23 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | 2.04 |
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.4 | 2.65 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | B | 18 | 2.8 | 3.43 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 3.51 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Maximiliano Agnese |  Boston College |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
