Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 14 10 24
2 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 20 18 38
3 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 20 30 50
4 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 33 21 54
5 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 25 30 55
6 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 29 26 55
7 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 29 35 64
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 4 3 2 1 2 14 Joan Boyle '14
Michelle Riddle '18
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 3 5 2 1 3 6 20 David Alldian '17
Andrew Graffeo '17
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 6 2 1 5 5 1 20 Alexander Doan '17
Samuel Kraft '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 1 6 6 3 4 5 25 Zachary Schippe '14
Connor Wells '14
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 1 4 4 DNS DNS 29 Eliza Crawford '14
Mackenzie Nelson '15
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 3 5 6 6 4 29 Chris Anderson '16
Alexandra Rosenbluth '15
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 7 7 7 7 2 3 33 Justin Morena '17 [1-4]
Maximiliano Agnese '16 [5-6]
Patricia Andrade '15 [1-4]
Justin Morena '17 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 1 1 2 1 4 10 Chris Myers '15
Ashley Paulino '15
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 4 2 2 1 6 3 18 Casey Jackson '17 [1-4]
Tracy Grim '16 [5-6]
Scott Barnhill '14 [1-4]
William Whelan '17 [5-6]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 7 5 4 2 1 21 Matthias Chia '15
Steven Ho '16
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 6 3 7 5 3 2 26 Rachel Pinkham '16
Amanda Castagna '15
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 3 5 6 6 5 5 30 Adam Rybczynski '14 [1-4]
Samuel Haksteen '17 [5-6]
Melissa Conway '16 [1-4]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 5 4 4 7 4 6 30 Liam Boyle '16
Alexandra Stapienski '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 7 6 3 3 DNS DNS 35 Charles Herlihy '14
Emma Kostenbader '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons112233
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers223344
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings334455
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions445566
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers556677
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats667711
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe771122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons112233
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers223344
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings334455
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions445566
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers556677
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats667711
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe771122

Conditions — 10/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.7 kn
avg  ·  max 2.7 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From N (11°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover23% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 5 kn · SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pennsylvania: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.51 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pennsylvania by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Pennsylvania, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →