| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 7–2 |
| 4 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 4–5 |
| 8 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,301 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 45 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.366 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.47 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 10.44 | 11.11 | 7–2 | 6.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 4 | College of Charleston | 9.81 | 10.40 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.59 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 1 | Stanford University | 11.40 | 11.86 | 8–1 | 7.6 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2 | Brown University | 10.73 | 10.96 | 7–2 | 6.7 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 8 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 8.66 | 8.82 | 3–6 | 2.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 5 | George Washington University | 9.66 | 9.75 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 6 | Fordham University | 9.29 | 9.33 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 7 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.90 | 9.32 | 4–5 | 5.0 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 9 | Cornell University | 8.53 | 6.70 | 1–8 | 2.8 | −1.84 | 2.0 | 99% |
| 10 | SUNY Maritime College | 6.21 | 3.21 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 3.62 | 4.29 | 7–2 | 6.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Jack Brown | College of Charleston | 3.23 | 3.82 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.59 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Gage Schoenherr | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 3.03 | 3.19 | 3–6 | 2.8 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Andrew Sheerin | George Washington University | 3.59 | 3.64 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Joshua Paper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.56 | 2.28 | 4–3 | 4.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.14 | 2.55 | 4–5 | 5.0 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Alex Fowkes | Cornell University | 2.03 | 1.36 | 1–3 | 1.2 | −0.66 | 0.1 | 93% |
| Clark Uhl | Cornell University | 3.33 | 1.50 | 1–8 | 2.8 | −1.84 | 2.0 | 99% |
| Roberto Stevens | Fordham University | 2.94 | 1.09 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.86 | 1.1 | 99% |
| Aidan Molesky | SUNY Maritime College | 1.78 | -1.22 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| John Lawless | SUNY Maritime College | 2.46 | -0.54 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Bears | Statesmen | Cougars | Colonials | Rams | Seahawks | Bears | Red | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 8–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 7–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 7–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 6–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 5–4 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–5 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
