George Washington University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–35 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 24–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 9–14 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (76 matches) the record is 41–35 against 42.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 2.25 | 11–9 | 13.0 | −0.57 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2018-03-10 | Woollum Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 1.56 | 13–2 | 14.2 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2017-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 2.20 | 3–5 | 4.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.80 | 3.75 | 6–9 | 3.6 | +0.95 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 2.40 | 8–10 | 8.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 4.08 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.7 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 5.7 | 4.30 |
| David Lee Arnoff Regatta | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.9 | 4.20 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.9 | 3.25 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.3 | 2.64 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 3.01 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.6 | 2.34 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.8 | 3.26 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 2.47 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 11.6 | 2.42 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 3.70 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 0.87 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.4 | 2.29 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 1.97 |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A, B | 6 | 12.0 | — |
| Jesuit Open | Crew | B | 2 | 9.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
