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David Lee Arnoff Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 43 29 72
2 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 51 58 109
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 54 57 111
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 51 84 135
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 79 91 170
6 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 95 78 173
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 84 89 173
8 Boston University Boston University Terriers 104 72 176
9 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 121 72 193
10 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 109 112 221
11 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 97 140 237
12 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 146 142 288
13 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 152 162 314
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 1 1 2 1 3 1 5 4 1 10 8 3 43 Hector Guzman '20
Maya Weber '20
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 4 4 7 2 1 4 2 5 2 5 3 11 51 Sam White '18 [1-13]
Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 [1-12]
Marshall Mccraw '20 [13]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 2 2 4 4 4 6 1 1 8 1 9 2 51 Charles Lomax '18
Vincent Storino '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 10 6 3 1 3 2 5 7 3 4 4 1 5 54 Peter Hogan '18 [1-13]
Ana Mier '19 [1-12]
Sean Linden '21 [13]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 8 10 3 5 6 9 8 6 3 13 5 1 79 Stephan Verhulst '19
Kelsy Waack '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 11 7 9 11 10 8 3 6 2 7 2 2 6 84 Thomas Balk '18
Kate Selley '20
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 4 3 8 12 8 12 11 3 7 5 7 6 9 95 Dreugh Phillips '21
Makalynne Dyer '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 11 6 9 6 7 2 9 RAF 11 6 7 4 97 Juan Lejarraga '19
Skye Miller '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 5 5 6 11 11 7 11 8 10 9 4 8 104 Skye Shepherd '20
Megan Blagden '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 8 10 7 5 7 5 8 DSQ 11 6 11 10 7 109 William Huerth '20 [1-13]
Anna Thickens '21 [1-9]
Alise Mintz '19 [10-13]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 6 9 12 8 DSQ 10 10 4 10 12 3 11 12 121 Sinead Mcmanus '20
Elizabeth Mccabe '18
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 12 12 11 10 12 9 13 12 12 9 12 12 10 146 Tyler Rochon '18
James Emery '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 13 13 13 13 9 13 12 10 9 13 8 13 13 152 Halle Buescher '21
Miranda Sannino '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 7 29 Charles Miller '19
Lindsey Kloc '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen OCS 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 1 7 11 3 9 57 Maxwell Brill '20 [1-13]
Karma Richards '20 [1-9, 13]
Bartholomew Winn '21 [10-12]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 2 4 3 8 2 10 5 8 1 2 2 5 58 Ryan Hunter '21
Garrett Lawlor '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons 2 4 6 7 3 4 3 4 6 6 9 10 8 72 Audrey Morin '21
Gillian Winn '21
Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 5 5 8 9 6 4 8 9 3 3 4 3 72 Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21
Erica Brown '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 7 8 9 6 11 9 5 3 2 4 4 8 2 78 Kyle Mergenthaler '20 [1-13]
Victoria Ewing '19 [1-9]
Breanna Schultz '21 [10-13]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 7 10 10 4 7 7 9 5 5 7 9 1 84 Adam Didomizio '19
Zachary Lehan '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 11 9 2 4 5 8 6 7 7 9 10 7 4 89 Luke Andersen '18
Ana Schonander '20
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4 6 7 DSQ 6 3 9 10 4 11 6 5 6 91 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21
Madison Reynolds '21
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 10 13 8 5 7 11 8 6 12 10 5 6 11 112 Tom Groskopf '19 [1-13]
Katharine Madigan '20 [1-9]
Thomas Kelly '20 [10-13]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 9 11 13 11 12 12 11 11 13 8 8 11 10 140 Maura King '19 [1-9]
William Sesack '21 [10-13]
William Sesack '21 [1-9]
Maura King '19 [10-13]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 8 10 11 9 10 10 12 12 11 13 12 12 12 142 Sean Kilcullen '20
Rebecca Saubermann '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 10 12 DNF 13 13 162 Patricia Corujo '21
Jessie Stoller '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1113335557779
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 122244466688810
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 233355577799911
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials44466688810101012
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons6668881010101212121
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen55577799911111113
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins7779991111111313132
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1010101212121113335
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1111111313132224446
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers9991111111313132224
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs8881010101212121113
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets1212121113335557
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1313132224446668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22244466688810
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 133355577799911
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 244466688810101012
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials55577799911111113
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Herons7779991111111313132
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6668881010101212121
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins8881010101212121113
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1111111313132224446
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1212121113335557
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers1010101212121113335
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs9991111111313132224
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets1313132224446668
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1113335557779
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Skye Shepherd '20 Megan Blagden '20
Terriers Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 Erica Brown '21
Cornell University Cornell University Thomas Balk '18 Kate Selley '20
Big Red 1 Luke Andersen '18 Ana Schonander '20
Cornell University Cornell University Halle Buescher '21 Miranda Sannino '20
Big Red 2 Patricia Corujo '21 Jessie Stoller '21
George Washington University George Washington University Sam White '18 [1-13] Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 [1-12]
Marshall Mccraw '20 [13]
Colonials Adam Didomizio '19 Zachary Lehan '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Sinead Mcmanus '20 Elizabeth Mccabe '18
Herons Audrey Morin '21 Gillian Winn '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hector Guzman '20 Maya Weber '20
Statesmen Charles Miller '19 Lindsey Kloc '19
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Stephan Verhulst '19 Kelsy Waack '18
Fins Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Madison Reynolds '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Dreugh Phillips '21 Makalynne Dyer '22
Monarchs Kyle Mergenthaler '20 [1-13] Victoria Ewing '19 [1-9]
Breanna Schultz '21 [10-13]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Juan Lejarraga '19 Skye Miller '19
Privateers Maura King '19 [1-9]
William Sesack '21 [10-13]		 William Sesack '21 [1-9]
Maura King '19 [10-13]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Charles Lomax '18 Vincent Storino '18
Mariners Ryan Hunter '21 Garrett Lawlor '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Peter Hogan '18 [1-13] Ana Mier '19 [1-12]
Sean Linden '21 [13]
Midshipmen Maxwell Brill '20 [1-13] Karma Richards '20 [1-9, 13]
Bartholomew Winn '21 [10-12]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Tyler Rochon '18 James Emery '18
Yellowjackets Sean Kilcullen '20 Rebecca Saubermann '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin William Huerth '20 [1-13] Anna Thickens '21 [1-9]
Alise Mintz '19 [10-13]
Badgers Tom Groskopf '19 [1-13] Katharine Madigan '20 [1-9]
Thomas Kelly '20 [10-13]

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine5.2 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1013.3 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · W 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.50 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →