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Icebreaker Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 89
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 108
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 130
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 140
5 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 143
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 159
7 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 227
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 232
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 9 11 2 2 5 3 4 5 2 43 Julien Guiot '18 [1-9]
Emma Clutterbuck '20 [1-7]
Duke Saunders '20 [8-9]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 4 5 3 1 9 15 1 1 5 44 Cameron Nash '21
Brittney Manning '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 5 2 4 6 1 6 15 4 3 46 Aaron Klein '18
Kahler Newsham '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 3 6 6 5 6 1 10 6 7 50 Talia Toland '22 [1-6]
Leyla Senocak '21 [7-9]
Lucy Robison '18 [1-6]
Marley Hillman '21 [7-9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 2 1 1 11 7 5 5 11 9 52 Wells Drayton '21 [1-9]
Marisa Permatteo '19 [1-6]
Sarah Bunney '19 [7-9]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 1 4 DNF 9 10 9 2 3 1 56 Alp Rodopman '17 [1-3]
Charlotte Lenz '20 [4-6]
Bram Brakman '21 [7-9]
Sarah Bunney '19 [1-3]
Jacob Whitney '21 [4-9]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 8 7 9 12 3 13 8 2 4 66 Peter Girard '18
Sage Walters '21
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 11 3 8 3 4 12 9 8 13 71 Jonas Nelle '22
Emma Jakobson '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 6 12 12 7 12 2 3 10 10 74 Christopher Pearson '20
Wyle Goddard '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 13 8 14 4 2 8 13 12 6 80 Lindsay Powers '21 [1-9]
Maria Brush '21 [1-6]
Anna Robling '19 [7-9]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 10 10 11 8 8 4 7 13 DNF 88 Owen Schafer '21
Emily Malpass '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 12 13 7 13 14 16 6 7 11 99 Nate Peck '20
Samuel Magill-Dohan '18
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 14 14 13 10 11 10 11 9 12 104 Lucie Ford '20
Mary Grace Bean '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 7 9 5 14 16 11 14 15 15 106 Ben Palmer '22
Claire Lockard '18
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 16 15 DNF 15 13 7 12 14 14 123 Joey Lark '21 [1-3]
Caroline King '21 [4-9]
Allison Gilson '21 [1-3]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 15 16 10 16 15 14 16 16 8 126 Carter Brock '22
Julianne Mozzer '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson111222333
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies222333444
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams777888999
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks333444555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1444555666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2555666777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3666777888
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts888999101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson999101010111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies101010111111121212
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151515161616111
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks111111121212131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1121212131313141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2131313141414151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3141414151515161616
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts161616111222

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1007.1 hPa

Temperature

36°F
↑ 38°F   ↓ 29°F
Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1007.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.39 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →