Northeastern University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24 (fleet 1.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–24 (38%) as crew 2–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 4–9 | 2–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 15–24 against 11.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.67 | 3.02 | 10–10 | 5.4 | +1.35 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 1.73 | 0.21 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.52 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.72 | 1.95 | 4–9 | 3.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Salve Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 2.48 |
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 0.72 |
| Saturday Salve Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 0.61 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.2 | -0.05 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 1.97 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.9 | 0.92 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.4 | 1.67 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.1 | 1.26 |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.9 | 1.58 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.0 | 0.63 |
| Harvard Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 3.47 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.8 | 1.82 |
| Chuck Fontaine Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 0.58 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 1.93 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Central Series Two | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 3.34 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 2.03 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 1.29 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.7 | 2.00 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.47 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.8 | 1.43 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | -0.92 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.3 | 1.67 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.8 | -0.28 |
| Central 3 at URI | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.0 | — |
| Central 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 1.66 |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Fly Series | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | 1.84 |
| PC Invite 2017 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 2.25 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.7 | 1.74 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| Bobby Berliner Trophy for Midweek Firefly Series | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 2.95 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ben Palmer |  Yarmouth High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
