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Southern 7 Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 96
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 112
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 130
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 132
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 134
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 152
7 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 154
8 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 178
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 A 4 10 9 3 1 1 1 2 31 Ryan Palardy '22
Katie Coughlin '24
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 A 5 2 2 5 2 9 8 11 44 Zachary Champney '22
Sadie Thomas '25
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 1 9 1 2 13 11 3 7 47 Andrew Powers '24
Ashley Breyer '24
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 3 16 3 9 5 5 5 4 50 Carter Brock '22
Jack Denker '22
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 B 9 6 8 1 8 6 11 3 52 Miles Williams '24
Miles Bailey '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 8 14 14 11 3 4 4 5 63 Emil Tullberg '25
Caelan Haddock '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 7 3 15 8 9 3 7 12 64 Marina Garrido '25
Adam Larzelere '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 2 11 5 10 7 15 12 6 68 Samantha Jensen '24
Adelaide Straub '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 11 13 7 14 10 2 2 9 68 Ryan Mckinney '23
Renee Smith '24
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 14 12 13 13 4 8 6 1 71 Luke Hosek '24
Izaiah Farr '23
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 6 1 10 7 15 16 16 10 81 Emmett Nevel '25
Ethan Snyder '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 B 10 5 4 15 16 10 13 8 81 Thomas Johnson '23
Jack Honan '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 15 7 11 6 6 14 9 15 83 Analucia Clarkson '22 [1-8]
Kensie Winton '23 [1-4]
Alexandra Wagner '22 [5-8]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 13 4 16 4 12 7 15 13 84 Ben Palmer '22
Hannah Fay '24
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 12 8 6 12 11 12 14 16 91 Molly Hanrahan '22 [1-2, 5-6, 8]
Olivia Lowthian '25 [3-4, 7]
Olivia Lowthian '25 [1-2, 5-6, 8]
Molly Hanrahan '22 [3-4, 7]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 16 15 12 16 14 13 10 14 110 Charles Bresnahan '23
Ruth Reischmann '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 222222222
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies33333333
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 177777777
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 288888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks44444444
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks55555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 11111111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 21212121212121212
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1313131313131313
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 11717171717171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 21818181818181818
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1414141414141414
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1515151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1616161616161616

Conditions — 04/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From N (4°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.36 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →