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Bobby Berliner Midweek Fly Series

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 9 9
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 13 13
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 16 16
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 17 17
5 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 24 24
6 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 26 26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 1 3 1 1 3 9 David Zymba '22
Liz Silva '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2 1 3 3 4 13 Kaila Pfrang '21
Phoebe Piercy '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 3 2 5 4 2 16 Julia Cho '20
Zoe Lallas '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 6 6 2 2 1 17 Ben Palmer '22
Julianne Mozzer '21
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 4 5 4 5 6 24 Paloma Soriano '18
Kate Azar '21
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 5 4 6 6 5 26 Sabrina Mcdonnell '18
Eddie Hou '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges66666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 255555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 12222222222
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 22424242424
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue2323232323

Conditions — 04/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From SSE (158°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1017.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 16 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.61 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →