Charles Invitational

HostHarvard
Date09/12/2021
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 1	34	38	72
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	50	23	73
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	46	35	81
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	29	77	106
5	Boston University	Terriers 2	43	72	115
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 2	66	50	116
7	Northeastern University	Huskies 1	45	71	116
8	Harvard University	Crimson	39	87	126
9	Boston University	Terriers 1	86	45	131
10	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	91	62	153
11	Northeastern University	Huskies 2	104	67	171
12	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	91	105	196
13	Olin College of Engineering	Phoenix	108	89	197
14	Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	118	125	243

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6	5	1	3	1	2	2	3	6	29	Jonathan Chance '23 Tate Bothner '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 1	3	1	6	1	3	6	4	6	4	34	Maks Groom '24 Samantha Karlson '25
Harvard University	Crimson	1	7	5	4	7	5	6	1	3	39	Dylan Ascencios '24 Carolyn Wang '23
Boston University	Terriers 2	12	4	3	2	2	4	7	7	2	43	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Grace Murphy '25
Northeastern University	Huskies 1	9	8	7	6	4	3	5	2	1	45	Everett Nash '24 Tyler Meadows '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	2	6	4	DNF	6	1	1	4	7	46	Niall Sheridan '23 Naomi Pedersen '25
University of Rhode Island	Rams	4	3	8	5	5	7	8	5	5	50	Ryan Palardy '22 Ryan Smart '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 2	5	2	2	OCS	8	8	3	8	OCS	66	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Sarah Aaronson '23
Boston University	Terriers 1	8	11	11	8	10	9	10	10	9	86	Renato Korzinek '25 Keilah Stypulkoski '23
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	7	9	13	11	12	11	11	9	8	91	Emil Tullberg '25 Tegan Tanner '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	10	14	10	7	9	10	9	11	11	91	Julia Shannon-Grillo '24 Lucy Belknap '25
Northeastern University	Huskies 2	11	12	12	9	11	12	13	12	12	104	Julia Beck '25 Lauren Krim '24
Olin College of Engineering	Phoenix	DNF	10	9	12	14	13	12	13	10	108	Thomas Jagielski '22 [1-9] James Jagielski '25 [1-3, 5-9] David Tarazi '22 [4]
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	13	13	14	10	13	14	14	14	13	118	Jack Eddy '21 Jonah Raymond '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
University of Rhode Island	Rams	2	1	1	2	2	3	1	3	8	23	Kerem Erkmen '25 Mackenzie Fraser '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	5	10	4	1	3	2	7	1	2	35	Shea Smith '25 Matthew Caplan '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 1	1	4	3	4	8	9	6	2	1	38	Charles Lindsay '21 Soleh Anderlini '23
Boston University	Terriers 1	4	9	2	3	5	1	3	13	5	45	Nathan Selian '25 Maggie Alter '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers 2	3	6	10	6	6	4	4	5	6	50	Mercedes Escandon '25 Nicholas Abate '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	11	7	5	10	1	7	8	9	4	62	Samantha Jensen '24 Dorothy Waskow '22
Northeastern University	Huskies 2	6	5	OCS	5	10	6	11	6	3	67	Adrian Winkelman '25 Anna Krylova '25
Northeastern University	Huskies 1	10	8	6	7	7	10	2	8	13	71	Ben Palmer '22 Lillian Pinciaro '25
Boston University	Terriers 2	9	2	7	9	4	5	12	12	12	72	William Wiegand '25 Lachlan Hooper '25
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	13	3	9	12	9	11	5	4	11	77	Christine Reimer '24 Holliss Hirsch '25
Harvard University	Crimson	7	11	12	8	12	8	9	11	9	87	Paul Kuechler '22 Katherine Barkin '22
Olin College of Engineering	Phoenix	8	12	8	13	11	13	10	7	7	89	Colin Snow '22 [1-3, 7-9] Alexander Miller '22 [4-6] Malvina Clavering '25 [1-3, 7-9] Sparsh Bansal '22 [4-6]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	12	13	11	11	13	12	13	10	10	105	Garrett Moen '23 Caroline Mcneil '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Leopards	14	14	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	125	Andrew Collins '25 Kathryn Dechambeau '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.160+0.16

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Boston University Terriers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Boston University Terriers 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Harvard University Crimson	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Northeastern University Huskies 1	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Northeastern University Huskies 2	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Olin College of Engineering Phoenix	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Salve Regina University Seahawks	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 1	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 2	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Boston University Terriers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Boston University Terriers 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Harvard University Crimson	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Northeastern University Huskies 1	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Northeastern University Huskies 2	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Olin College of Engineering Phoenix	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Salve Regina University Seahawks	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 1	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 2	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston University	Renato Korzinek '25	Keilah Stypulkoski '23
Terriers 1	Nathan Selian '25	Maggie Alter '22
Boston University	Elliott Mendenhall '25	Grace Murphy '25
Terriers 2	William Wiegand '25	Lachlan Hooper '25
Bowdoin College	Jonathan Chance '23	Tate Bothner '25
Polar Bears	Christine Reimer '24	Holliss Hirsch '25
Harvard University	Dylan Ascencios '24	Carolyn Wang '23
Crimson	Paul Kuechler '22	Katherine Barkin '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Maks Groom '24	Samantha Karlson '25
Engineers 1	Charles Lindsay '21	Soleh Anderlini '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Julius Heitkoetter '25	Sarah Aaronson '23
Engineers 2	Mercedes Escandon '25	Nicholas Abate '25
Northeastern University	Everett Nash '24	Tyler Meadows '25
Huskies 1	Ben Palmer '22	Lillian Pinciaro '25
Northeastern University	Julia Beck '25	Lauren Krim '24
Huskies 2	Adrian Winkelman '25	Anna Krylova '25
Olin College of Engineering	Thomas Jagielski '22 [1-9]	James Jagielski '25 [1-3, 5-9] David Tarazi '22 [4]
Phoenix	Colin Snow '22 [1-3, 7-9] Alexander Miller '22 [4-6]	Malvina Clavering '25 [1-3, 7-9] Sparsh Bansal '22 [4-6]
Salve Regina University	Emil Tullberg '25	Tegan Tanner '23
Seahawks	Garrett Moen '23	Caroline Mcneil '22
Tufts University	Julia Shannon-Grillo '24	Lucy Belknap '25
Jumbos 1	Samantha Jensen '24	Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University	Niall Sheridan '23	Naomi Pedersen '25
Jumbos 2	Shea Smith '25	Matthew Caplan '25
University of Rhode Island	Ryan Palardy '22	Ryan Smart '22
Rams	Kerem Erkmen '25	Mackenzie Fraser '23
Wentworth Institute of Technology	Jack Eddy '21	Jonah Raymond '22
Leopards	Andrew Collins '25	Kathryn Dechambeau '22

Conditions — 09/12/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

77°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 67°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.2 kn

avg · max 15.6 kn

Gusts to 28.2 kn

From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1014.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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