Boston University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.76 (fleet 2.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–30 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–11 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 15–30 against 16.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Mass Maritime Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.91 | 1.03 | 3–5 | 4.4 | −0.88 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 1.80 | 2.72 | 6–11 | 3.7 | +0.92 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 1.43 | 0.89 | 6–14 | 8.1 | −0.54 | 0.8 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Mass Maritime Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 2.98 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Wesleyan Invite | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | -1.13 |
| Boston University Trophy FR | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 1.74 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.6 | 1.38 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 5.2 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.8 | 1.66 |
| The Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.0 | 3.13 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 Fleet Race / Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | -0.05 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 2.67 |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| Icebreaker Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | 2.12 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | 1.76 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.9 | 2.52 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 30% | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 6.1 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.0 | 2.27 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 2.52 |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 1.53 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | A | 15 | 13.7 | -0.24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
