Harvard Invitational

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 28 28
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 30 30
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 46 46
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 47 47
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 56 56
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 64 64
7 Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 65 65
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 68 68
9 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 70 70
10 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 75 75
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 78 78
12 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 79 79
13 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 84 84
14 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 92 92
15 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 100 100
16 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 118 118
17 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 124 124
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 1 9 1 6 7 2 1 1 28 Jack Redmond '26
Matt Budington '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 2 7 5 3 2 1 2 8 30 Peter Joslin '26
Lily Ornstein '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 12 4 2 8 7 6 2 46 Adrien Bellanger '25
Cecilia Adams '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 7 11 2 4 3 4 7 9 47 Maks Groom '24
Wendy Wu '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 8 14 14 1 5 6 3 5 56 Kyra Phelan '26
Isabelle Tsuchitori '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 3 16 3 7 12 8 5 10 64 Julius Heitkoetter '25
Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23
Boston College Boston College Eagles 1 4 8 9 8 1 13 11 11 65 Nick Budington '25
Sophia Hacket '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 14 3 6 15 4 9 4 13 68 Alex Abate '22
Shrika Eddula '26
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 9 4 11 11 6 3 14 12 70 Benjamin Stevens '25
Aidan Michelow '25
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 6 1 13 12 14 10 12 7 75 Jonathan Chance '23
Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 15 15 8 9 11 5 9 6 78 Julia Shannon-Grillo '24
Margaret Klein '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 12 10 7 5 9 11 10 15 79 Gavin Monaghan '26
Sahil Khatnani '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 11 6 10 16 10 15 13 3 84 Marina Garrido '25
Lilly Ladd '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 10 5 16 13 15 14 15 4 92 William Wiegand '25
Grace Murphy '25
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 13 2 12 14 16 12 17 14 100 Alexander Lee '23
Abigail Fennelly '24
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 16 17 15 17 13 16 8 16 118 Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26
Isabel Eddy '24
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 17 13 17 10 17 17 16 17 124 Richard Kalich '26
Jack Cariaso '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 111223344
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 222334455
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles 333445566
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 144556677
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 255667788
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 366778899
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 17788991010
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 2889910101111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 399101011111212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 11010111112121313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 21111121213131414
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 11212131314141515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 21313141415151616
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 31414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 115151616171711
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2161617171122
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31717112233

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From ENE (65°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.30 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →