Massachusetts Institute of Technology '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 21.03 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–21 (38%) as crew 6–12 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 3–11 | 6–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 19–33 against 23.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.47 | 1.20 | 10–10 | 14.6 | −1.28 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | crew | 3.24 | 3.21 | 2–4 | 2.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.24 | 3.03 | 2–6 | 1.1 | +0.79 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | crew | 2.59 | 2.46 | 3–5 | 3.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 1.87 | 2.07 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | crew | 3.06 | 1.07 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −2.00 | 1.6 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.4 | 2.77 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 2.61 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 1.71 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 2.58 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 3.22 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.8 | 2.92 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.0 | 3.13 |
| Coed ACC's Round 1A | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.9 | 3.47 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.3 | 3.65 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.0 | 2.80 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 2.60 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.9 | 2.47 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 3.12 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 3.23 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | 2.46 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.8 | 4.11 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 3.56 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.5 | 2.13 |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 13.5 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | A | 6 | 7.8 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts University Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 1.57 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 13.0 | 1.77 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.6 | 2.73 |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alex Abate |  Clear Falls High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
