Ivan Geiger Team Race

HostMIT
Date03/18/2023
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	14–3
2	Harvard University	Crimson	13–4
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	10–7
4	Boston College	Eagles	9–8
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–10
6	Boston University	Terriers	6–11
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5–12
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,847 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 68 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.593 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.41 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	8.91 school +0.27	Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 2.92 George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.58 11–1 Kyle Pfrang / Julia O'Connor 3.28 7–1 Jack Roman / Julia O'Connor 2.51 5–2 Kyle Pfrang / Grace Woodcock 3.21 3–2 Kyle Pfrang / Ethan Snyder 3.06 2–0	69%	14–3 (82%)	+2.2
2	Harvard University Crimson	1	9.28 school +0.25	Marbella Marlo / Ariel Wang 3.01 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 2.97 Cordelia Burn / Emily Launderville 3.03 13–1 Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.01 0–3	76%	13–4 (76%)	+0.2
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	8.78 school −0.05, home +0.41	Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 2.97 Lucy Brock / Grace Mao 2.79 Emily Scherer / Shayne Bersin 2.42 6–3 Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.24 4–1 Emily Scherer / Yitian Zhu 2.31 0–3	65%	10–7 (59%)	−1.1
4	Boston College Eagles	5	8.71 school +0.24	Peter Busch / Lily Ornstein 2.99 Caroline Sibilly / Elliot Dyroff 2.81 7–6 Libby Redmond / Katelyn Mcgauley 2.63 7–6 Graham Ness / Kennedy Laureigh 2.54 2–2 Jack Redmond / Lourdes Gallo 2–2	59%	9–8 (53%)	−1.1
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	6	6.85	Kytalin Hendrickson / Kaylee Good 2.16 Olin Guck / Eric Pohl 2.13 Tyler Nash / Zachary Severson 2.53	35%	7–10 (41%)	+1.1
6	Boston University Terriers	7	6.10	Elliott Mendenhall / Morgan Contrino 2.33 William Wiegand / Carolyn Kravets 1.80 Porter Bell / Lachlan Hooper 1.95	22%	6–11 (35%)	+2.3
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	8.20 school +0.17	Elizabeth Kaplan / Jondall Norris 2.85 Sam Bonauto / Brooke Asherman 3.03 Jonathan Chance / Aidan Michelow 2.07 4–11 Ethan Danielson / Aidan Michelow 1–1	60%	5–12 (29%)	−5.2
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	5.68 school −0.10	Conneely Julia / Charles Pohl 1.73 2–8 Luke Zylinski / William Spada 2.00 2–8 Bradley Whiteway / Mia Quinlan 1.94 2–8 Conneely Julia / Mia Quinlan 1.73 2–5 Luke Zylinski / Charles Pohl 2.10 2–5 Bradley Whiteway / William Spada 1.88 2–5	14%	4–13 (24%)	+1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Boston University	6.10	7.02	6–11	3.7	+0.92	1.6	11%
1	Roger Williams University	8.91	9.72	14–3	11.8	+0.81	1.2	17%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	5.68	6.41	4–13	2.5	+0.73	0.9	21%
5	University of Rhode Island	6.85	7.27	7–10	5.9	+0.42	0.3	35%
2	Harvard University	9.28	9.34	13–4	12.8	+0.06	0.0	60%
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.78	8.42	10–7	11.1	−0.36	0.3	82%
4	Boston College	8.71	8.34	9–8	10.1	−0.36	0.3	82%
7	Bowdoin College	8.20	6.24	5–12	10.2	−1.96	7.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
George Higham	Roger Williams University	2.58	4.36	11–1	8.3	+1.78	3.0	6%
Elliott Mendenhall	Boston University	2.33	3.24	6–11	3.7	+0.92	1.6	11%
William Wiegand	Boston University	1.80	2.72	6–11	3.7	+0.92	1.6	11%
Conneely Julia	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.73	2.46	4–13	2.5	+0.73	0.9	21%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.00	2.73	4–13	2.5	+0.73	0.9	21%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.94	2.68	4–13	2.5	+0.73	0.9	21%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.03	3.08	13–4	12.8	+0.06	0.0	60%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.97	3.03	13–4	12.8	+0.06	0.0	60%
Elizabeth Kaplan	Bowdoin College	2.85	0.89	5–12	10.2	−1.96	7.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	98%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	92%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	71%
1	4	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	5	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
1	6	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	75%
1	7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	8	Boston College	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
1	9	Bowdoin College	Boston University	89%
1	10	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
1	11	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	45%	upset
1	12	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	66%
1	13	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	80%
1	14	Roger Williams University	Boston University	90%
1	15	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	16	Harvard University	Boston College	64%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	77%
1	19	Harvard University	Boston University	96%
1	20	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	96%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
1	22	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	92%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	7%	upset
1	24	Boston College	Boston University	93%
1	25	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	26	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	96%
1	27	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	68%
1	28	Boston College	Bowdoin College	61%
2	29	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
2	30	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8%	upset
2	31	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	71%
2	32	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	33	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
2	34	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	96%
2	35	Boston University	Boston College	7%	upset
2	36	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	21%	upset
2	37	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
2	38	Harvard University	Boston College	64%
2	39	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
2	40	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	68%
2	41	Roger Williams University	Boston College	59%
2	42	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	76%
2	43	Harvard University	Boston University	96%
2	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	24%	upset
2	45	Bowdoin College	Boston College	39%	upset
2	46	Roger Williams University	Boston University	90%
2	47	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
2	48	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	92%
2	49	Boston University	Bowdoin College	11%	upset
2	50	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
2	51	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	46%	upset
2	52	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	84%
2	53	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
2	54	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	75%
2	55	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	35%	upset
2	56	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
4	57	Boston College	Harvard University	37%	upset
4	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
4	59	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
4	60	Roger Williams University	Boston College	58%
4	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	65%
4	62	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	46%	upset
4	63	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	21%	upset
4	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	40%	upset
4	65	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
4	66	Bowdoin College	Boston University	89%
4	67	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	8%	upset
4	68	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	32%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Crimson	Engineers	Eagles	Rams	Terriers	Bears	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Crimson	Engineers	Eagles	Rams	Terriers	Bears	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Crimson	Engineers	Eagles	Rams	Terriers	Bears	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–1	✕	W	L	W	–	–	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	1–2	L	✕	W	L	–	–	–	–
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–1	W	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Boston College Eagles	1–2	L	W	L	✕	–	–	–	–
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–1	–	–	–	–	✕	L	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–2	–	–	–	–	W	✕	L	L
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	W	✕	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
2	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
3	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
4	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
6	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
7	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
8	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
9	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6 DNF
10	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
11	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
12	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
13	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
14	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
15	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
17	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
18	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
19	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
21	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
22	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
23	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
24	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
25	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
26	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
27	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
28	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
30	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
32	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
33	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
35	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
36	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
37	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
38	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
39	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
40	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
41	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
42	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
43	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
44	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
45	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
46	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
47	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
48	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
49	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
50	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
51	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
52	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
53	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
54	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
55	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
56	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
57	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
58	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
59	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
60	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
61	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
62	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
63	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
64	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
65	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
66	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
67	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
68	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	George Higham '23 Jack Roman '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Oliver Stokke '26	Grace Woodcock '23 Julia O'Connor '24 Ethan Snyder '25 Claire Buckley '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Emily Launderville '24 Margo Silliman '25 Ariel Wang '23 Corinne Lee '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Emily Scherer '23 Lucy Brock '25	Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25 Yitian Zhu '25 Grace Mao '23
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Graham Ness '23 Jack Redmond '26 Libby Redmond '24 Peter Busch '26	Elliot Dyroff '26 Kennedy Laureigh '26 Lourdes Gallo '24 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Lily Ornstein '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Kytalin Hendrickson '26 Olin Guck '26 Tyler Nash '26	Kaylee Good '26 Eric Pohl '28 Zachary Severson '26
Boston University	Terriers	Elliott Mendenhall '25 Porter Bell '26 William Wiegand '25	Morgan Contrino '24 Lachlan Hooper '25 Carolyn Kravets '25
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Elizabeth Kaplan '23 Ethan Danielson '26 Jonathan Chance '23 Sam Bonauto '25	Jondall Norris '25 Aidan Michelow '21 Brooke Asherman '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Conneely Julia '26 Luke Zylinski '26	Mia Quinlan '24 William Spada '26 Charles Pohl '26

Conditions — 03/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1003.4 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.2 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1003.4 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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