Icebreaker Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 10 5 15
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 12 18 30
3 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 21 27 48
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 24 26 50
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 18 33 51
6 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 41 23 64
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 34 31 65
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 45 27 72
9 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 39 46 85
10 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 43 47 90
11 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 43 47 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 2 1 2 1 10 Niall Sheridan '23
Matthew Caplan '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 1 3 1 6 12 Adam Larzelere '25
Thomas Mazzeo '26
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 6 2 4 3 18 William Wiegand '25
Carolyn Kravets '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5 3 6 3 4 21 Gavin Sanborn '25 [1-4]
Caitlin Derby '26 [5]
Campbell Mcclellan '26 [1-4]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 4 8 5 5 24 Iain Jaeger '23
Olivia Anderson '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 5 4 10 7 34 Keller Morrison '25
William Salerno '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 11 8 11 7 2 39 Sean Crandall '25
Amelia Conkey '26
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 10 9 5 9 8 41 Harry Stevenson '24
Maggie Forger '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 6 10 9 8 10 43 William Procter '24
Walter Chiles '26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 7 7 7 11 11 43 Andy Leshaw '25
Hannah Hicks '25
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 11 10 6 9 45 Sylvia Burns '26
Anna Krylova '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Clark Morris '26
Cindy Wang '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 7 3 2 2 18 Annecy Kagan '26
Harrison Vose '26
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 3 4 8 5 3 23 Greta Shuster '25
John Hull '26
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 2 7 7 5 26 Willem Weinberg '24
Vanessa Reid '26
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 6 3 2 8 8 27 Audrey Commerford '25
Lilia Hutchins '23
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 5 5 3 6 27 Oliver Dietter '27
Isabella Welch '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 10 6 4 4 31 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26
Lucian Sharpe '24
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 9 4 11 7 33 Richard Kalich '26
Yangyang Liu '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 9 8 9 9 11 46 Ana López '26
Garrett Moen '23
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 6 11 10 10 47 John Van Zanten '25 [1-2]
Olyn Jacobson '26 [3-5]
Jillian Harrington '23 [1-2]
Luke Dubois '26 [3-5]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 11 11 10 6 9 47 Olivia Fulghum '24
Evelyn Lane '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats11335
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22446
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33557
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers44668
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers55779
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies668810
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1010113
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks779911
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 18810101
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 29911112
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts1111224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats22446
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers33557
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44668
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers55779
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers668810
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies779911
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1111224
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks8810101
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 19911112
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21010113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts11335

Conditions — 03/12/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

38°F
↑ 40°F   ↓ 30°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NE (44°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1017.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →