Harvard University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 (fleet 1.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–12 (0%) as crew 2–8 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 0–3 |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 0–12 | 2–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 2–20 against 5.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | crew | 2.93 | -0.07 | 0–3 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2019-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.11 | -1.89 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | crew | 3.40 | 1.39 | 2–5 | 3.9 | −2.01 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.8 | 1.85 |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 1.60 |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 1.24 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| The Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.3 | -1.22 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.2 | 1.71 |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | 0.92 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts September Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | -1.18 |
| Harvard Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 1.67 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 9.5 | 0.74 |
| Graham Hall | Crew | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 15.7 | 0.99 |
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 1.05 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
