Tufts September Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 69
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 82
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 105
4 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 130
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 145
6 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 153
7 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 187
8 Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 239
9 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 277
10 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 308
11 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 319
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 2 4 2 3 9 2 7 1 30 Catherine "B" Lindsay '23
Jacob Asher '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 4 3 8 4 1 9 4 2 35 Alexandra Talbot '22
Hailey Mckelvie '22
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 12 2 1 9 3 4 3 5 39 Christophe Chaumont '23
Alexandra Contomichalos '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 1 5 7 19 2 1 6 6 47 Lera Anders '22
Rose O'Neal '22
Brown University Brown University Bears A 6 10 3 12 11 3 2 3 50 William George '23
Sirine Benali '23
Brown University Brown University Bears B 7 8 13 6 4 5 5 RDG 55 Aryaman Dutta '22
Juan Briano '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 9 1 5 2 7 14 9 9 56 Nils Tullberg '23
Zachary Steuer '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 5 11 10 11 6 11 1 4 59 Kyle Nannig '21
Elizabeth Taylor '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 10 7 12 1 5 13 11 12 71 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marley Hillman '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 3 6 4 8 12 10 13 18 74 Allison Deluca '21
Mary Persico '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 11 12 6 5 10 8 14 8 74 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marley Hillman '21
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 8 13 9 14 16 12 8 13 93 Paul Kuechler '22
Katherine Barkin '22
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 15 14 11 15 8 6 15 10 94 Ryan Palardy '22
Ryan Smart '22
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 13 9 14 10 13 16 12 7 94 Gorham Partington '23
Juliana Ruggieri '23
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix B 18 15 17 7 14 7 10 11 99 Colin Snow '22
Kelly Yen '23
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue A 16 17 18 18 17 15 19 14 134 Maeve Hulsman-Wells '23
Olivia Laroche '22
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons A 17 19 15 13 19 18 20 15 136 Brian Kiley '20
Annamarie Bugosh '22
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix A 20 18 16 16 18 17 16 19 140 Thomas Jagielski '22
Sparsh Bansal '22
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons B 14 16 20 17 20 20 18 16 141 Dane Phippen '23
Kerri Tracy '22
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints A DNS 20 19 20 15 19 17 17 150 Parker Brannon '20
Raymond Le '21
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints B 19 22 DNS 21 21 22 21 20 169 Caroline Ferguson '21
No Show
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue B 21 21 21 22 22 21 DNS DNS 174 Annika Pfister '23
Gretchen Willmuth '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons11223344
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22334455
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints33445566
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson44556677
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix55667788
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams99101011111212
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks66778899
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 17788991010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2889910101111
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue1010111112121313
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs1111121213131414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons1212131314141515
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1313141415151616
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints1414151516161717
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1515161617171818
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix1616171718181919
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams20202121222211
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1717181819192020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11818191920202121
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21919202021212222
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue212122221122
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs2222112233

Conditions — 09/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 25.3 kn
From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1017.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →