Yale University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 3.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 12–3 against 11.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.14 | 2.58 | 12–3 | 11.0 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.3 | 2.53 |
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.0 | 3.61 |
| Tufts September Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.8 | 2.58 |
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 3.35 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 2.96 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
