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Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR)

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12–3
2 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 9–6
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 9–6
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,652 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +1.06 ± 0.47: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tufts University
Jumbos		18.36
school +0.06		Chris Keller / Taylor Hart 2.64
Samuel Shea / Caroline Ambros 2.58
Jackson Mccoy / Emily Calandrella 2.98		70%12–3 (80%)+1.5
2University of Vermont
Catamounts		37.63
school −0.10		Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.72
Jan Kite-Powell / Emma Janson 2.83
Nate Peck / James Mccracken 2.13		48%9–6 (60%)+1.8
3Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		27.91
school +0.25, home +0.37		Alexander Vasiliou / Kevin Elk
Michael Kann / Eve Allen 1.98
Matt Safford / Hannah Konkel 2.64		57%9–6 (60%)+0.5
4Northeastern University
Huskies		46.86
school +0.06		Kyle Riggs / Romain Astie 2.25
Zachary Bresnick / Jon Ewing 2.09
Gregory Corsello / Marika Van Dusen		25%0–15 (0%)−3.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tufts University8.368.9112–310.5+0.550.629%
2University of Vermont7.638.169–67.2+0.530.724%
3Bowdoin College7.918.069–68.5+0.150.150%
4Northeastern University6.863.860–153.8≤−3.006.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Chris KellerTufts University2.643.2012–310.5+0.550.629%
Samuel SheaTufts University2.583.1412–310.5+0.550.629%
Alexander VasiliouBowdoin College2.402.569–68.5+0.150.150%
Michael KannBowdoin College1.982.139–68.5+0.150.150%
Kyle RiggsNortheastern University2.25-0.750–153.8≤−3.006.0>99%
Zachary BresnickNortheastern University2.09-0.910–153.8≤−3.006.0>99%
Gregory CorselloNortheastern University2.09-0.910–153.8≤−3.006.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tufts UniversityNortheastern University86%
12University of VermontBowdoin College49%upset
13University of VermontNortheastern University73%
14Tufts UniversityBowdoin College64%
15University of VermontTufts University33%upset
16Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University75%
27Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University75%
28Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont67%
29Tufts UniversityBowdoin College62%
210University of VermontNortheastern University70%
211Tufts UniversityNortheastern University82%
212University of VermontBowdoin College44%upset
313University of VermontBowdoin College43%upset
314Tufts UniversityNortheastern University82%
315University of VermontNortheastern University68%
316Tufts UniversityBowdoin College60%
317Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University74%
318Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont68%
419Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont68%
420Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University74%
421Bowdoin CollegeTufts University40%upset
422University of VermontNortheastern University66%
423Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont59%
424Tufts UniversityNortheastern University80%
525Tufts UniversityNortheastern University80%
526Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont59%
527University of VermontNortheastern University65%
528Bowdoin CollegeTufts University41%upset
529Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont68%
530Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University73%

Round 1

TeamRec.JumbosCatamountsBearsHuskies
Tufts University Jumbos2–1✕LWW
University of Vermont Catamounts3–0W✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–2LL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.JumbosCatamountsBearsHuskies
Tufts University Jumbos3–0✕WWW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–1L✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–2LL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.JumbosCatamountsBearsHuskies
Tufts University Jumbos3–0✕WWW
University of Vermont Catamounts2–1L✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–2LL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–3LLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.JumbosCatamountsBearsHuskies
Tufts University Jumbos2–1✕WLW
University of Vermont Catamounts1–2L✕LW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–0WW✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–3LLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.JumbosCatamountsBearsHuskies
Tufts University Jumbos2–1✕WLW
University of Vermont Catamounts1–2L✕LW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–0WW✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
2 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-4-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-6
3 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
4 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
5 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
7 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-4-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-6
9 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
10 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
11 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
12 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
13 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
15 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
16 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-4-6
17 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
19 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
20 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
22 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
23 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
24 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
26 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6
27 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
28 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
29 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-5-6
30 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1000.8 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.8 kn
avg  ·  max 13.9 kn
Gusts to 32.1 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1000.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Bowdoin — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Bowdoin in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled fleet-race days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →