Tufts University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 2.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–24 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 22–24 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 22–24 against 24.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 2.64 | 3.20 | 12–3 | 10.5 | +0.55 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 1.10 | 2–8 | 5.1 | −1.62 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 2.08 | 8–13 | 9.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 2.88 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.3 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.6 | 5.07 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.3 | 3.94 |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | 3.38 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
