Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 26 32 58
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 51 11 62
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 27 38 65
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 35 40 75
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 39 43 82
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 53 31 84
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 57 27 84
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 53 40 93
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 51 50 101
10 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 64 38 102
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 16 90 106
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 49 72 121
13 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 48 79 127
14 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 65 90 155
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 1 1 1 3 4 6 16 Alex Tong '17
Lara Dienemann '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 2 2 5 6 2 9 26 Scott Barbano '17
Ian Morgan '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 6 2 7 7 2 27 Duncan Swian '15
Lily Lichenstein '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 DNS 3 4 8 1 4 35 Dan Nickerson '15
Natalie Danzinger '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 11 9 7 2 3 7 39 Chris Keller '19
Michelle Chisdak '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 5 13 8 1 8 13 48 Julien Guiot '18
Emma Clutterbuck '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 10 4 11 10 11 3 49 Cam Holley '19
Amanda Sommi '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 4 12 10 12 5 8 51 Kate Shaner '16
Julia Fuller '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 6 11 3 4 DSQ 12 51 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Alec Ruiz-Ramon '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 9 5 9 9 10 11 53 Aaron Klein '18
Lucy Robison '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 12 8 12 5 6 10 53 Florian Evd '19
Sarah Bunney '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 13 14 6 11 12 1 57 Jack Duncan '19
Jack Bitney '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 8 7 13 13 9 14 64 Pierre Du Pont '16
Maggie Veltri '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 7 10 14 14 DNF 5 65 Andrew Savage '19
Kahler Newsham '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 1 1 6 1 1 1 11 Ansgar Jordan '22
Ann Sheridan '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 2 5 2 8 5 5 27 Sam Merson '22
Celia Byrne '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 8 3 1 6 9 4 31 Alex Fasolo '22
Amelia Carlson '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 11 7 4 5 2 3 32 Matthew Galbraith '21
Harper Mckerrow '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 12 3 2 10 8 38 Sabina Van Mell '19
Duke Saunders '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 6 4 10 7 4 7 38 Austen Freda '21
Lindsay Powers '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 7 6 7 4 6 10 40 George Sidamon-Eristoff '22
Jack Flores '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 12 2 8 9 7 2 40 Sammy Shea '19
Margaret Klein '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 9 10 9 3 3 9 43 Tyler Paige '19
Ben Mueller '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 5 11 5 OCS 8 6 50 Wells Drayton '21
Audrey Becker '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 4 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 Chloe Holder '23
Paige Tyler '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 10 9 DNS DNS DNS DNS 79 Abbie Carlson '22
Mallory Hood '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 Jacob Witney '21
Juliana Testa '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 Andrew Savage '19
Kahler Newsham '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 10101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11111111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 12121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 13131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 14141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 5555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 6666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 7777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 8888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 9999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 10101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11111111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 12121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 13131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 14141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 5555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 6666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 7777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 8888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 9999999

Conditions — 05/20/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1019.9 hPa Rain0.56 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.57 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →