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Southern 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 11 8 19
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 8 18 26
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 19 25 44
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 23 28 51
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 33 21 54
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 29 33 62
7 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 34 38 72
8 Brown University Brown University Bears 48 32 80
9 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 51 43 94
10 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 43 52 95
11 Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech 55 45 100
12 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 52 54 106
13 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 51 58 109
14 Saints Saints Saints 75 75 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 1 1 1 8 Chris Keller '19
Michelle Chisdak '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 2 5 2 11 Spencer Cartwright '22
Emily Gildea '21
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 5 3 2 3 19 Casey Cabot '21
Shannon Macdonald '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 4 5 6 4 23 Delaney Bamford '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 9 2 4 8 6 29 Nicholas Giacobbe '19
Margaret Veltri '20
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 7 13 3 7 33 Bridget Lawless '21
Allison Gilson '21
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 5 8 9 7 5 34 Thomas Pluchino '18
Caoilinn Boyle '20
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 7 9 12 4 11 43 Noah Brayer '18
Jeremy Allen '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 11 8 11 10 48 Gabriel Hannon '20
Elizabeth Rolfes '21
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 10 13 6 13 9 51 Nathaniel Barton '18
Danielle Rothschild '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 11 6 10 12 12 51 Alexander Baskin '19
Jeanelle Tsai '21
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 12 10 7 10 13 52 Danielle Elson '19
Alexandra Burke '21
Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech OCS 12 11 9 8 55
Saints Saints Saints DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 1 1 3 1 8 Riley Read '22
Darcy Lavoie '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 2 3 7 2 18 Julien Guiot '18
Jacob Whitney '21
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 7 5 2 4 21 Brian Baker '18
Emma Sexton '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 3 9 1 11 25 Raymond Groble Iv '21
Katherine Bertolini '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 8 6 2 5 7 28 Rebecca Read '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 4 13 6 3 32 Aryaman Dutta '22
Justin Chiang '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 10 5 4 8 6 33 John Duncan '19
Maria Brush '21
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 12 8 6 4 8 38 Brett Doty '20
Anneliese Knutson '21
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 11 7 9 5 43 Simon Rothman '21
Sarah Levi '19
Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech Worcester Polytech 5 9 10 11 10 45
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 9 12 8 10 13 52 Emma Vogel '18 [1-5]
Justin Stott '20 [1-2, 5]
Alex Cooper '20 [3-4]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 7 13 12 13 9 54 Laura Crowley '19
Olivia Mclaughlin '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 10 11 12 12 58 Mitchell Parker '21
Mollie Ockene '21
Saints Saints Saints DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1616161616
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22222
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1010101010
SaintsSaints Saints33333
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats44444
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1111111111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers55555
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212121212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks66666
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks77777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 188888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 299999
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1313131313
Worcester PolytechWorcester Polytech Worcester Polytech1414141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1616161616
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22222
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1010101010
SaintsSaints Saints33333
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats44444
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1111111111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers55555
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212121212
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks66666
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks77777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 188888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 299999
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1313131313
Worcester PolytechWorcester Polytech Worcester Polytech1414141414

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1020.4 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1020.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →