2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/25/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	18–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	18–3
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	15–6
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–10
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–13
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–13
7	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–16
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	1–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 68 of 84 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.431 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	9.72 school −0.30, home +0.24	James Jacob / Dane Pedersen 2.75 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.57 15–3 Jack Elkin / Gabriel Smith 3.49 15–3 Jeremy Herrin / Molly Sternberg 3.45 3–0 Lee Dumaliang / Gabriel Smith 3.11 3–0	56%	18–3 (86%)	+6.2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	11.05	Sean Segerblom / Claire Mohun 3.92 William Logue / Yusuf Mallick 3.83 10–2 Jack Gerli / Macey Mccann 3.05 10–2 William Logue / Albert Kraus 3.79 8–1 Andy Reiter / Macey Mccann 3.30 8–1	82%	18–3 (86%)	+0.8
3	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.07 school +0.34	Gerald Williams / Grace Mccarthy Stefano Peschiera / Caroline Bracken 3.93 Alie Toppa / Annabel Carrington	83%	15–6 (71%)	−2.3
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	9.77 school +0.50	Liam Mccarthy / Kira Allen 2.98 Carolyn Smith / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.18 Patrick Tara / Kaisey Mccallion 3.01	56%	11–10 (52%)	−0.8
5	Tufts University Jumbos	6	9.16 school +0.12	Jack Bitney / Natalie Danziger 3.18 Chris Keller / Taylor Hart James Beatty / Leah Fletcher 3.17 8–10 James Beatty / Caroline Ambros 3.06 0–3	44%	8–13 (38%)	−1.3
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	9.36 school +0.05	Jimmy Madigan / Emma Remis 2.92 Parker Loftus / Kent Mathes 3.27 Maxwell Brill / Manuel Inserni Pagan 2.96	48%	8–13 (38%)	−2.1
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7	7.90	William Gallagher / Sarah Punzel 2.38 Carolyn Kearney / Max Slosburg Nicholas Floyd / Catie Hopkins 3.30 2–10 Nicholas Floyd / Dana Hackett 2.97 3–6	23%	5–16 (24%)	+0.1
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	8	6.62 school −0.23	Max Neubelt / Patrick Hegarty 2.95 Ryan Wood / Patrick Scollard 1.47 Garrett Lawlor / Grier Wakefield 2.19	7%	1–20 (5%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Old Dominion University	9.72	11.64	18–3	11.8	+1.93	7.8	<1%
2	Georgetown University	11.05	11.39	18–3	17.2	+0.34	0.2	44%
7	University of Pennsylvania	7.90	7.94	5–16	4.9	+0.04	0.0	58%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.77	9.53	11–10	11.9	−0.23	0.1	76%
5	Tufts University	9.16	8.78	8–13	9.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6.62	6.19	1–20	1.5	−0.43	0.1	80%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	9.36	8.75	8–13	10.1	−0.62	0.9	92%
3	College of Charleston	11.07	10.30	15–6	17.3	−0.77	1.4	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	3.11	6.11	3–0	2.4	≥+3.00	1.0	49%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.57	5.50	18–3	11.8	+1.93	7.8	<1%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.30	3.65	8–1	7.6	+0.35	0.1	60%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.83	4.16	18–3	17.2	+0.34	0.2	44%
Jack Gerli	Georgetown University	3.05	3.38	10–2	9.5	+0.33	0.1	53%
William Gallagher	University of Pennsylvania	2.38	2.42	5–16	4.9	+0.04	0.0	58%
Carolyn Kearney	University of Pennsylvania	2.16	2.20	5–16	4.9	+0.04	0.0	58%
Carolyn Smith	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.18	2.95	11–10	11.9	−0.23	0.1	76%
Patrick Tara	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.01	2.77	11–10	11.9	−0.23	0.1	76%
James Beatty	Tufts University	3.17	2.79	8–13	9.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
Chris Keller	Tufts University	2.46	2.08	8–13	9.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
Max Neubelt	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.95	2.52	1–20	1.5	−0.43	0.1	80%
Ryan Wood	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.47	1.03	1–20	1.5	−0.43	0.1	80%
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.92	2.31	8–13	10.1	−0.62	0.9	92%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	2.96	2.34	8–13	10.1	−0.62	0.9	92%
Gerald Williams	College of Charleston	3.33	2.57	15–6	17.3	−0.77	1.4	96%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.93	3.16	15–6	17.3	−0.77	1.4	96%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.21	2.44	15–6	17.3	−0.77	1.4	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
1	2	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	79%
1	3	College of Charleston	Tufts University	88%
1	4	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	5	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	6	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
1	7	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	8	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	75%
1	9	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	10	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
1	11	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	45%	upset
1	12	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14%	upset
1	13	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	77%
1	14	Georgetown University	Tufts University	88%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	66%
1	18	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	78%
1	19	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	20	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	74%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	65%
1	22	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	62%
1	23	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	24	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	96%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
1	26	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	27	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	24%	upset
1	28	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	97%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
2	30	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
2	31	College of Charleston	Tufts University	88%
2	32	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	79%
2	33	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	15%	upset
2	35	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
2	36	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	76%
2	37	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	47%	upset
2	38	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
2	39	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
2	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	85%
2	41	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	21%	upset
2	42	Georgetown University	Tufts University	88%
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
2	44	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	79%
2	45	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	64%
2	46	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	79%
2	47	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
2	48	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	75%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	64%
2	50	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
2	51	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
2	52	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	96%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
2	54	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Tufts University	7%	upset
2	55	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	77%
2	56	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	96%
3	57	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
3	58	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
3	59	College of Charleston	Tufts University	88%
3	60	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
3	61	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
3	62	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
3	63	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%	upset
3	64	University of Pennsylvania	Tufts University	24%	upset
3	65	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	46%	upset
3	66	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
3	67	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	54%
3	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	85%
3	69	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	80%
3	70	Tufts University	Georgetown University	12%	upset
3	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
3	72	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	79%
3	73	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	63%
3	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	21%	upset
3	75	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
3	76	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	76%
3	77	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	37%	upset
3	78	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
3	79	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
3	80	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	96%
3	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
3	82	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
3	83	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	23%	upset
3	84	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	96%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Monarchs	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Quakers	Mariners
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Monarchs	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Quakers	Mariners
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Monarchs	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Quakers	Mariners
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	W	L	W	✕	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Mariners	2-3-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
3	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
4	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
6	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
7	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
9	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
10	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
12	Quakers	3-4-5	def.	Seahawks	1-2-6 RAF
13	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
14	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
16	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
18	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
20	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
22	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
23	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
24	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
25	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
26	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
27	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
28	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
30	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
31	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
32	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
34	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
35	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
36	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
37	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
38	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
39	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
40	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
41	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
43	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
44	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
46	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
48	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
50	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
51	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
53	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
54	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
55	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
56	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
58	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
59	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
60	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
61	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
62	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
63	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
64	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
65	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
66	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
67	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
68	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
69	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
70	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
72	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
73	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
74	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
75	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
76	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
77	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
78	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
79	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
80	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
81	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
82	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
83	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
84	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18 Lee Dumaliang '17	Gabriel Smith '17 Dane Pedersen '19 Carter Little '18 Molly Sternberg '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Jack Gerli '17 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Macey Mccann '20 Claire Mohun '19 Yusuf Mallick '19 Albert Kraus '17
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Gerald Williams '19 Stefano Peschiera '18	Annabel Carrington '19 Grace Mccarthy '18 Caroline Bracken '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Carolyn Smith '17 Liam Mccarthy '19 Patrick Tara '17	Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kira Allen '18 Kaisey Mccallion '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	Chris Keller '19 Jack Bitney '19 James Beatty '17	Taylor Hart '19 Natalie Danziger '17 Leah Fletcher '17 Caroline Ambros '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Jimmy Madigan '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20	Emma Remis '20 Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 Kent Mathes '20
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Carolyn Kearney '18 Nicholas Floyd '19 William Gallagher '20	Max Slosburg '19 Dana Hackett '20 Catie Hopkins '17 Sarah Punzel '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Garrett Lawlor '20 Max Neubelt '17 Ryan Wood '17	Grier Wakefield '18 Patrick Hegarty '18 Patrick Scollard '17

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1024.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.6 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1024.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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