Old Dominion University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–51 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 20–13 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 43–51 against 41.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 6.11 | 3–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.37 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 1.31 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −1.48 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.12 | 2.47 | 4–12 | 5.5 | −0.65 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 3.63 | 9–5 | 7.1 | +0.72 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2014-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 4.08 | 10–5 | 6.1 | +1.63 | 4.5 | 1% |
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 0.97 | 10–8 | 12.5 | −1.54 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.40 | 1.85 | 2–7 | 2.6 | −0.55 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.7 | 3.74 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 2.52 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 2.92 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.9 | 3.00 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 10.8 | 2.66 |
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.4 | 1.39 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 3.14 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 3.32 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 3.00 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.7 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.6 | 1.73 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 3.17 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.1 | 2.46 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 2.89 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 0.96 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 13.0 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 2.38 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
