John Jackson Memorial Team Race

HostGeorgetown
Date03/12/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–1
2	Fordham University	Rams	9–5
3	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–6
4	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	8–6
5	Connecticut College	Camels	8–6
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–8
7	Cornell University	Big Red	2–12
8	Jacksonville University	Fins	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,381 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 56 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.473 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	12.09 home +0.23	Nevin Snow / Meaghan Macrae 4.59 11–1 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.98 8–0 Roger Dorr / Claire Mohun 3.48 3–1 Andy Reiter / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.67 3–1 Aj Reiter / Rebecca Fung 3.77 4–0 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rebecca Fung 3.84 2–0 Campbell D'Eliscu / Claire Mohun 3.75 2–0 Jack Marshall / Rebecca Fung 3.29 2–0 Jack Gerli / Claire Mohun 3.26 2–0 Jack Marshall / Maggie Kelly 3.16 2–0	95%	13–1 (93%)	−0.3
2	Fordham University Rams	3	10.08 school −0.09	Alecsander Tayler / Evan Morgan 3.48 Connor Godfrey / Connor Murphy 3.59 Will Holz / Johanna Monro 3.07	64%	9–5 (64%)	+0.0
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.28 school +0.06	Martim Anderson / Jennifer Agell 3.04 Mackenzie Bryan / Breanne Baldino 3.55 Stewart Draheim / Sara Swanson 3.49	68%	8–6 (57%)	−1.6
4	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	8.89	Zachary Hill / Andreas Adam 3.39 Kyle Comerford / Caitlin Cummings 3.05 John Lawless / Matthew Romanuski 2.41 5–5 Juan Lejarraga / Matthew Romanuski 2.11 3–1	40%	8–6 (57%)	+2.5
5	Connecticut College Camels	4	9.42 school +0.07	Walter Florio / Erin Smith Bryce Kopp / Victoria Allen 3.46 Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.32	53%	8–6 (57%)	+0.6
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	8.78 school −0.31	Joseph David / Abigail Lockler 2.93 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.08 4–6 Jack Elkin / Stephen Guglielmo 3.04 4–4 Lee Dumaliang / Stephen Guglielmo 2.79 1–3 Ethan Lounsbury / Carter Little 2.92 2–2 Ethan Lounsbury / Stephen Guglielmo 2.80 1–1	40%	6–8 (43%)	+0.4
7	Cornell University Big Red	8	7.72 school +0.17	Matthew Schofield / Andrea Farr 2.54 Luke Andersen / Dalton Brauer Thomas Balk / Tara Bergstrom 2.30	18%	2–12 (14%)	−0.5
8	Jacksonville University Fins	7	7.96	Stephan Verhulst / Victoria Caba 2.44 Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton 2.82 Peter Steo / Lauri Niklason 2.45	22%	2–12 (14%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	SUNY Maritime College	8.89	9.88	8–6	5.5	+1.00	1.8	10%
5	Connecticut College	9.42	9.67	8–6	7.4	+0.25	0.1	48%
6	Old Dominion University	8.78	8.95	6–8	5.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
2	Fordham University	10.08	10.09	9–5	9.0	+0.01	0.0	64%
7	Cornell University	7.72	7.41	2–12	2.5	−0.32	0.1	77%
1	Georgetown University	12.09	11.68	13–1	13.3	−0.41	0.1	85%
8	Jacksonville University	7.96	7.35	2–12	3.1	−0.61	0.5	87%
3	Roger Williams University	10.28	9.57	8–6	9.6	−0.70	0.8	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.98	6.98	8–0	7.5	≥+3.00	0.7	60%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.77	6.78	4–0	3.7	≥+3.00	0.5	72%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.29	6.29	4–0	3.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
Juan Lejarraga	SUNY Maritime College	2.11	3.67	3–1	1.6	+1.56	1.5	17%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.39	4.39	8–6	5.5	+1.00	1.8	10%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.41	3.10	5–5	4.0	+0.69	0.5	32%
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.41	2.66	8–6	7.4	+0.25	0.1	48%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.46	3.71	8–6	7.4	+0.25	0.1	48%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	2.93	3.10	6–8	5.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.48	3.49	9–5	9.0	+0.01	0.0	64%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.59	3.60	9–5	9.0	+0.01	0.0	64%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.07	3.08	9–5	9.0	+0.01	0.0	64%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.08	2.99	4–6	4.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
Matthew Schofield	Cornell University	2.54	2.22	2–12	2.5	−0.32	0.1	77%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.59	4.07	11–1	11.4	−0.52	0.2	88%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.44	1.82	2–12	3.1	−0.61	0.5	87%
Daniel Lawless	Jacksonville University	2.82	2.21	2–12	3.1	−0.61	0.5	87%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.04	2.34	8–6	9.6	−0.70	0.8	93%
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	2.79	1.31	1–3	2.2	−1.48	1.2	97%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.67	1.39	3–1	3.9	−2.29	1.8	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	97%
1	2	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	23%	upset
1	3	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	24%	upset
1	4	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	71%
1	5	Georgetown University	Fordham University	93%
1	6	Cornell University	Jacksonville University	42%	upset
1	7	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	8	Connecticut College	Old Dominion University	68%
1	9	Fordham University	Cornell University	92%
1	10	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	92%
1	11	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	72%
1	12	SUNY Maritime College	Connecticut College	32%	upset
1	13	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	93%
1	14	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	77%
1	15	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	16	Connecticut College	Jacksonville University	82%
1	17	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	82%
1	18	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	78%
1	19	Fordham University	Jacksonville University	90%
1	20	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	94%
1	21	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	52%
1	22	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	91%
1	23	Georgetown University	Cornell University	97%
1	24	Connecticut College	Fordham University	34%	upset
1	25	SUNY Maritime College	Jacksonville University	73%
1	26	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	27	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	28	Connecticut College	Cornell University	84%
2	29	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	96%
2	30	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	75%
2	31	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	73%
2	32	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
2	33	Georgetown University	Fordham University	93%
2	34	Jacksonville University	Cornell University	55%
2	35	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	78%
2	36	Connecticut College	Old Dominion University	66%
2	37	Fordham University	Cornell University	90%
2	38	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	91%
2	39	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	72%
2	40	SUNY Maritime College	Connecticut College	32%	upset
2	41	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	92%
2	42	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	75%
2	43	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
2	44	Connecticut College	Jacksonville University	81%
2	45	Old Dominion University	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
2	46	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	76%
2	47	Jacksonville University	Fordham University	12%	upset
2	48	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	93%
2	49	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
2	50	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	90%
2	51	Georgetown University	Cornell University	97%
2	52	Fordham University	Connecticut College	64%
2	53	SUNY Maritime College	Jacksonville University	72%
2	54	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	3%	upset
2	55	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
2	56	Connecticut College	Cornell University	83%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Rams	Hawks	Privateers	Camels	Monarchs	Red	Fins
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Jacksonville University Fins	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Rams	Hawks	Privateers	Camels	Monarchs	Red	Fins
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Jacksonville University Fins	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
2	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
3	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
4	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
6	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
7	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
8	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
9	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
11	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
12	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
14	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
16	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Fins	2-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
18	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
19	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
20	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
21	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
22	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
24	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
25	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
26	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
27	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
28	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
30	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
31	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
32	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
34	Fins	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
35	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
36	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
37	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
38	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
39	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
40	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
41	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
42	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
44	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
46	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
47	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
48	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
49	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
50	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
52	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
53	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
54	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
55	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
56	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Andy Reiter '19 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Jack Gerli '17 Jack Marshall '18 Nevin Snow '16 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Golden '16	Rebecca Fung '19 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Claire Mohun '19 Maggie Kelly '17 Meaghan Macrae '18
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Evan Morgan '18 Connor Murphy '16 Johanna Monro '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Breanne Baldino '16 Jennifer Agell '19 Sara Swanson '16
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Juan Lejarraga '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Matthew Romanuski '16 Caitlin Cummings '18 Andreas Adam '18
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Victoria Allen '16 Eliza Garry '17 Erin Smith '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Ethan Lounsbury '17 Jack Elkin '19 Jeremy Herrin '18 Joseph David '16 Lee Dumaliang '17	Stephen Guglielmo '19 Carter Little '18 Abigail Lockler '18
Cornell University	Big Red	Luke Andersen '18 Matthew Schofield '17 Thomas Balk '18	Dalton Brauer '16 Andrea Farr '18 Tara Bergstrom '18
Jacksonville University	Fins	Daniel Lawless '17 Peter Steo '19 Stephan Verhulst '19	Hannah Knighton '17 Lauri Niklason '16 Victoria Caba '17

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.7 kn

avg · max 4.7 kn

Gusts to 10.9 kn

From SE (126°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine1.9 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1024.0 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu