Jacksonville University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–17 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–17 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 3–17 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 1.84 | 2–12 | 3.1 | −0.61 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 1.59 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.75 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Crew | A | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 1.51 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.7 | 1.68 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 4.74 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 3.10 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 17.0 | 1.33 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 1.90 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 2.66 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 3.12 |
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 2.10 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 3.23 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 3.07 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 1.61 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.6 | 2.37 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 2.38 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Peter Steo |  Irondequoit High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
