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SAISA South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 18 6 24
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 14 11 25
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 5 22 27
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 15 15 30
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 16 20 36
6 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 21 24 45
7 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 25 20 45
8 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 30 26 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 2 1 1 1 5 Michael Sanandajian '18
Mandi Dickie '18
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 4 3 6 14 Daniel Lawless '17
Anna Palmer '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 5 3 5 2 15 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21
Kalli Unthank '15
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 4 5 2 5 16 Max Thompson '19
Antonio Bermudez Lopez '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 6 2 6 4 18 Geoffrey St. John '19 [1-4]
Rebekah Woodburn '19 [1-3]
Kathryn Ross '18 [4]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 3 7 4 7 21 David Beaudry '20 [1-4]
Katie Freeley '19 [1-3]
Martin Carr '20 [4]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 8 6 8 3 25 Toby Perelmuter '18
Marissa Pace '19
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 7 8 7 8 30 Rafael Melendez '17
Javier Roque '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 2 1 2 6 Matthew Peterson '18
Sage Morgan '18
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 5 1 4 1 11 Peter Steo '19
Avery Bechthole '20
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 2 5 3 5 15 Andre Guaragna '21
Lauri Niklason '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3 7 2 8 20 Kyle Magno '18 [1-4]
David Newhard '20 [1-3]
Andrew Scotti '20 [4]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 4 3 7 6 20 Charlotte Samson '19
Augustine Haile '20
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 6 8 5 3 22 Cameron Smith '19
Darby Capellin '19
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 7 4 6 7 24 Zachary Boogaart '20
Juliana Cromie '20
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 8 6 8 4 26 Curtis Woodworth '17
Nicholas Bentley '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1113
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators5557
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles2228
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 13335
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 24442
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes6664
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 17771
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 28886

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons2224
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators6668
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles1117
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 14446
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 23331
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes5553
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 18882
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 27775

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.1 kn
Gusts to 9.5 kn
From NW (305°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 3 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Florida: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.34 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Florida, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →