University of Miami '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–47 (4%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–27 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 2–47 against 2.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.20 | -0.80 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2017-04-08 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.37 | -0.63 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2017-02-25 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.05 | 2.38 | 2–23 | 1.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.58 | -1.42 | 0–16 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 2.89 |
| SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.1 | 3.18 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.2 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 2.93 |
| SAISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 4 | 0% | — |
| SAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 2.98 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.4 | 2.85 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 1.69 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.75 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.0 | 1.58 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.8 | 1.99 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.19 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 2.66 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.3 | 2.59 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 1.88 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.0 | — |
| SAISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 2.45 |
| SAISA Coed Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.3 | 2.28 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 14.7 | 2.09 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 25 | 8% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.0 | 3.50 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.7 | 2.18 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.7 | 2.36 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 2.58 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.7 | 0.97 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.0 | 3.36 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 1.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.8 | 1.95 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.38 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 2.57 |
| SAISA Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | 1.81 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 17.3 | 1.66 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.37 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | 0.00 |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.73 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Crew | A | 8 | 7.1 | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 1.53 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | -0.40 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Max Thompson |  Lake Norman High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
