| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 8–3 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 4–7 |
| 4 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 4–7 |
| 5 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Davidson College | Wildcats | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,652 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 22 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 11.41 school +0.30 | Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.90 Jack Cusick / Chloe Dapp 3.93 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.27 | 87% | 9–1 (90%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 9.70 school +0.10 | Jason D'Agostino / Sabine Zinserling 3.23 Andrew Schoene / Kim Kusminsky 3.13 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 3.22 | 48% | 7–3 (70%) | +2.2 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 4 | 8.64 school −0.19 | Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton 2.82 Ethan Lounsbury / Anna Palmer 2.94 Stephan Verhulst / Kelsy Waack 3.04 | 24% | 3–7 (30%) | +0.6 |
| 4 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 10.18 | Andrew Baird / Darby Capellin 3.51 Sean Cornell / Kristen Walker 3.85 Brendan Feeney / John Monahan 2.76 | 60% | 3–7 (30%) | −3.0 |
| 5 | University of Miami Hurricanes | 5 | 6.01 school −0.11 | Max Thompson / Kaitlyn Delisser 2.37 Kyle Magno / Olivia Gassner 2.44 Andrew Scotti / Geoffrey Calderone | 3% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eckerd College | 9.70 | 10.99 | 7–3 | 4.8 | +1.29 | 2.0 | 10% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 8.64 | 9.07 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.43 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 11.41 | 11.74 | 9–1 | 8.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 4 | University of South Florida | 10.18 | 8.39 | 3–7 | 6.0 | −1.79 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 5 | University of Miami | 6.01 | 3.01 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason D'Agostino | Eckerd College | 3.23 | 4.52 | 7–3 | 4.8 | +1.29 | 2.0 | 10% |
| Andrew Schoene | Eckerd College | 3.13 | 4.42 | 7–3 | 4.8 | +1.29 | 2.0 | 10% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | Eckerd College | 3.22 | 4.50 | 7–3 | 4.8 | +1.29 | 2.0 | 10% |
| Daniel Lawless | Jacksonville University | 2.82 | 3.25 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.43 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Stephan Verhulst | Jacksonville University | 3.04 | 3.47 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.43 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Stefano Peschiera | College of Charleston | 3.90 | 4.22 | 9–1 | 8.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Jack Cusick | College of Charleston | 3.93 | 4.25 | 9–1 | 8.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 61% |
| Andrew Baird | University of South Florida | 3.51 | 1.72 | 3–7 | 6.0 | −1.79 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Sean Cornell | University of South Florida | 3.85 | 2.07 | 3–7 | 6.0 | −1.79 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Brendan Feeney | University of South Florida | 2.76 | 0.97 | 3–7 | 6.0 | −1.79 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Andrew Scotti | University of Miami | 1.29 | -1.71 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Tritons | Fins | Bulls | Hurricanes | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Davidson College Wildcats | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Tritons | Fins | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 5–1 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–5 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–5 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tritons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Fins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Tritons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Fins | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Christophe Killian '18 Jack Cusick '17 Stefano Peschiera '18 |
Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Chloe Dapp '17 Grace Mccarthy '18 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 |
Kim Kusminsky '19 Sabine Zinserling '20 Delphine Carroll '19 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Daniel Lawless '17 Ethan Lounsbury '17 Stephan Verhulst '19 |
Hannah Knighton '17 Anna Palmer '17 Kelsy Waack '18 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Sean Cornell '18 |
Darby Capellin '19 John Monahan '20 Kristen Walker '17 |
|
University of Miami | Hurricanes | Andrew Scotti '20 Kyle Magno '18 Max Thompson '19 |
Geoffrey Calderone '18 Olivia Gassner '18 Kaitlyn Delisser '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
