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SAISA South Points #5

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 35
2 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 37
3 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 46
4 Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 78
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 1 5 1 3 2 12 Michael Sanandajian '18 [1-4]
Sean Cornell '18 [5]
Katie Berg '17 [1-4]
Kristen Walker '17 [5]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators B 7 1 5 1 1 15 Samuel Armington '18
Katie Freeley '19
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons A 2 3 6 5 3 19 Matthew Peterson '18
Tatiana Chinitz '19
University of Florida University of Florida Gators A 4 2 8 4 4 22 Jack Famiglietti '18
Jasmine Dahlby '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 5 8 2 2 6 23 Cameron Smith '19 [1-2, 5]
Michael Trebilcock '17 [3-4]
Augustine Haile '20 [1-2, 5]
Lizette Arnold '17 [3-4]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons B 6 7 3 6 5 27 Cameron Douglas '20
Virginia Kilbourne '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes B 3 6 10 8 7 34 Kaitlyn Delisser '20 [1-4]
Geoffrey Calderone '18 [5]
Geoffrey Calderone '18 [1-4]
Kaitlyn Delisser '20 [5]
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State B 9 4 7 7 8 35 Rafael Melendez '17 [1-5]
Trevor Stone '20 [1-4]
Zoey Holden '20 [5]
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State A 10 9 4 10 10 43 Isabella Lemole '20
Caitlyn Gillespie '19
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes A 8 10 9 9 9 45 Max Thompson '19
Benjamin Kaminsky '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (51 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons11223
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators33445
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State221110
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes44332
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls55667

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons66554
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators88776
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State77889
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes9910101
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1010998

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From E (87°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at South Florida: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →