Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta

HostGeorgetown
Date04/12/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	139
2	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	159
3	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2	172
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	237
5	George Washington University	Colonials	241
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	248
7	Fordham University	Rams	255
8	Cornell University	Big Red	323
9	Rutgers University	Rutgers	445

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1 A	3	4	8	2	7	1	6	DSQ	5	2	2	1	1	61	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 [1-3] Sean Golden '16 [4-13] Hollis Dana '16 [1-3] Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 [4-13]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2 A	1	16	7	4	4	3	4	2	3	1	1	12	8	66	Lee Dumaliang '17 Cady Johnson '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1 A	10	7	3	7	2	10	2	4	4	6	10	8	2	75	Jacob Spracher '15 Katelyn Talley '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1 B	7	2	12	1	3	16	5	5	1	8	11	2	5	78	Aj Reiter '17 [1-13] Elizabeth Mullarney '16 [1-3] Eliana Michaels '14 [4-13]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1 B	8	6	6	15	14	2	10	3	2	4	4	4	6	84	Ethan Lounsbury '17 Kaylie Gallagher '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen A	5	1	13	10	5	4	11	1	10	3	13	7	10	93	Michael Madigan '17 Mary Robertson '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2 B	2	5	1	11	6	8	15	6	8	13	5	15	11	106	Jill Fattibene '14 Grace Mason '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2 B	4	3	11	8	13	6	13	13	14	5	8	6	4	108	John Andril '15 [1-3] Tuckerman Jones '17 [4-13] Emma Kemble '17 [1-3] Maggie Cirullo '17 [4-13]
George Washington University	Colonials B	12	14	2	6	10	13	8	12	6	14	7	3	7	114	Madison Oleson '17 Henry Young '16
Fordham University	Rams A	13	11	9	14	12	9	1	10	15	7	12	9	3	125	Anders Ekholm '17 Johanna Monro '16
George Washington University	Colonials A	9	9	14	3	9	15	9	14	12	10	9	5	9	127	Colin Kennedy '17 Sarah Mccormack '14
Fordham University	Rams B	16	8	10	5	1	5	14	15	9	12	BKD	13	12	130	Matthew Winter '14 Elaina Mansley '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2 A	11	15	5	12	16	7	3	11	11	11	15	10	13	140	Merritt Moran '14 [1-3] Emily Fung '17 [4-13] Maggie Kelly '17 [1-3] Albert Kraus '17 [4-13]
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen B	6	10	16	9	11	14	16	7	13	9	6	11	16	144	Hannah Hughes '17 Aaron Hull '16
Cornell University	Big Red A	15	12	4	16	17	12	7	8	7	15	14	DNF	14	160	Robert Suriani '16 Rebecca Mount '17
Cornell University	Big Red B	14	13	17	13	8	11	12	9	17	17	3	14	15	163	Samuel Webster '17 Emma Mcgrath '16
Rutgers University	Rutgers B	17	17	15	17	15	17	17	DNS	16	16	17	17	17	217	Connor Van Demark '16 Kathryn Scheidt '16
Rutgers University	Rutgers A	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	16	18	18	16	16	18	228	Taylor Niles '17 Daniel Klarnet '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Cornell University Big Red	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Fordham University Rams	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
George Washington University Colonials	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Rutgers University Rutgers	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
Cornell University Big Red	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Fordham University Rams	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
George Washington University Colonials	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Rutgers University Rutgers	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cornell University	Robert Suriani '16	Rebecca Mount '17
Big Red	Samuel Webster '17	Emma Mcgrath '16
Fordham University	Anders Ekholm '17	Johanna Monro '16
Rams	Matthew Winter '14	Elaina Mansley '16
George Washington University	Colin Kennedy '17	Sarah Mccormack '14
Colonials	Madison Oleson '17	Henry Young '16
Georgetown University	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 [1-3] Sean Golden '16 [4-13]	Hollis Dana '16 [1-3] Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 [4-13]
Hoyas 1	Aj Reiter '17 [1-13]	Elizabeth Mullarney '16 [1-3] Eliana Michaels '14 [4-13]
Georgetown University	Merritt Moran '14 [1-3] Emily Fung '17 [4-13]	Maggie Kelly '17 [1-3] Albert Kraus '17 [4-13]
Hoyas 2	John Andril '15 [1-3] Tuckerman Jones '17 [4-13]	Emma Kemble '17 [1-3] Maggie Cirullo '17 [4-13]
Old Dominion University	Jacob Spracher '15	Katelyn Talley '16
Monarchs 1	Ethan Lounsbury '17	Kaylie Gallagher '16
Old Dominion University	Lee Dumaliang '17	Cady Johnson '16
Monarchs 2	Jill Fattibene '14	Grace Mason '16
Rutgers University	Taylor Niles '17	Daniel Klarnet '16
Rutgers	Connor Van Demark '16	Kathryn Scheidt '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Michael Madigan '17	Mary Robertson '17
Midshipmen	Hannah Hughes '17	Aaron Hull '16

Conditions — 04/12/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 6.4 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From ESE (113°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1023.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn* · S 13 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Georgetown: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.53 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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